利用通用气候系统模式(Community Climate System Model,简称CCSM)全新世和21世纪气候模拟试验数据,对比分析了全新世暖期鼎盛期和RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5,简称RCP4.5)未来变暖情景下东亚地区夏季地表气温和...利用通用气候系统模式(Community Climate System Model,简称CCSM)全新世和21世纪气候模拟试验数据,对比分析了全新世暖期鼎盛期和RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5,简称RCP4.5)未来变暖情景下东亚地区夏季地表气温和降水的空间分布特征,并探讨了两个暖期夏季气候变化的成因机制。结果表明:1)全新世东亚地区最暖的夏季出现在9 ka B.P.前后,这与地球轨道参数有关;2)RCP4.5温室气体排放情景下21世纪整个东亚地区的夏季平均地表气温均呈上升趋势,而在全新世暖期鼎盛期东亚地区的夏季地表气温呈现同心圆状分布;3)全新世暖期鼎盛期和未来变暖情景下东亚地区夏季降水的空间分布有明显差异,前者东亚地区的夏季降水呈现"南负北正"的偶极子分布形态,而后者呈三极子形势;前者东亚夏季降水的变化幅度明显强于后者;4)全新世暖期鼎盛期副高偏强,中国东部偏南气流较强;而在RCP4.5未来变暖情景下副高偏弱。展开更多
The 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) and 10-20-day ISO are two dominant oscillation modes over the western North Pacific during boreal summer.With daily data derived from eight CMIP5 models,changes of the ISO ...The 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) and 10-20-day ISO are two dominant oscillation modes over the western North Pacific during boreal summer.With daily data derived from eight CMIP5 models,changes of the ISO intensities are projected under the 1.5 and 2.0℃ global warming levels under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.Most of the models agree that the ISO intensities increase along a belt region from the south Indochina Peninsula(ICP) to the east to the Philippines.The variation pattern shows little difference between different warming levels or scenarios.Results indicate that the spatial distribution of ISO anomalies is related with the variation of background fields.Enriched lower-level humidity and moist static energy favor the intensity increases of ISOs,which are projected to be larger over the whole western North Pacific,with the most conspicuous changes located over the east to the Philippines for humidity but over the south of the ICP for moist static energy.In contrast,the ISOs over the west to Indonesia and northeast to the Philippines decrease,which is consistent with the local descending motions.展开更多
21世纪平流层气候变化主要由两个因素所决定,一个是臭氧层恢复造成的变暖,另一个是温室气体增加造成的变冷。针对在这两种相反的辐射效应作用下,平流层气温如何变化这一重要问题,使用CMIP5未来情景模拟试验的结果,对2006—2100年间的平...21世纪平流层气候变化主要由两个因素所决定,一个是臭氧层恢复造成的变暖,另一个是温室气体增加造成的变冷。针对在这两种相反的辐射效应作用下,平流层气温如何变化这一重要问题,使用CMIP5未来情景模拟试验的结果,对2006—2100年间的平流层温度的变化趋势进行分析。结果表明,臭氧恢复的增温效应在平流层低层起主导作用,而温室气体增加的冷却效应在平流层高层起主导作用,因此,平流层低层(70 h Pa以下)呈变暖趋势,而平流层中高层呈变冷趋势。通过对包含完整平流层的气候模式(高顶模式)和只包含部分平流层的气候模式(低顶模式)预估的温度趋势的差异进行分析,发现高顶模式预估的变暖趋势大于低顶模式的结果,这意味着模式是否包含完整平流层有可能对预估的平流层和对流层未来气候变化有重要影响。展开更多
文摘利用通用气候系统模式(Community Climate System Model,简称CCSM)全新世和21世纪气候模拟试验数据,对比分析了全新世暖期鼎盛期和RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5,简称RCP4.5)未来变暖情景下东亚地区夏季地表气温和降水的空间分布特征,并探讨了两个暖期夏季气候变化的成因机制。结果表明:1)全新世东亚地区最暖的夏季出现在9 ka B.P.前后,这与地球轨道参数有关;2)RCP4.5温室气体排放情景下21世纪整个东亚地区的夏季平均地表气温均呈上升趋势,而在全新世暖期鼎盛期东亚地区的夏季地表气温呈现同心圆状分布;3)全新世暖期鼎盛期和未来变暖情景下东亚地区夏季降水的空间分布有明显差异,前者东亚地区的夏季降水呈现"南负北正"的偶极子分布形态,而后者呈三极子形势;前者东亚夏季降水的变化幅度明显强于后者;4)全新世暖期鼎盛期副高偏强,中国东部偏南气流较强;而在RCP4.5未来变暖情景下副高偏弱。
文摘利用2个关于大西洋经向翻转流(Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation,AMOC)的指数:AMOC指数(15oN^65oN、深度为500 m以下的AMOC的最大值)和AMOC扩展指数(15oN^65oN、深度为2000~2500m的AMOC的最大值),研究了耦合模式FGOALS-g2(Grid-point Version 2 of Flexible Global Ocean-AtmosphereLand System Model)中的AMOC在CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)的3个典型浓度路径(Representation Concentration Pathways,RCP)(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5分别对应于2100年时490、650和1370 ppm的CO2浓度水平)下的响应问题,发现:在RCP2.6和RCP4.5浓度路径下,2006~2040年时间段内AMOC指数和AMOC扩展指数都呈现快速下降的趋势,2041~2100年时间段内AMOC指数逐渐恢复,AMOC扩展指数基本维持不变;在RCP8.5浓度路径下,2006~2100年时间段内AMOC指数和AMOC扩展指数都表现出快速下降的趋势。通过分析FGOALS-g2中北大西洋深水的成因发现:3个典型浓度路径下AMOC的长期变化趋势主要受到GIN(Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian)海域的深水形成率的调控,而AMOC的年代际尺度的变化则主要受到Labrador海域深水形成率的控制。同时揭示了:由于北大西洋2000 m深度附近的层结稳定性在RCP2.6和RCP4.5下(相比于1980~2005年)提高了30%~40%,使得由AMOC指数恢复产生的深水无法继续下沉,从而导致AMOC扩展指数没有出现恢复的现象。
基金This research was jointly supported by the National Key R&D Program of China[grant number 2017YFA0603802]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41730964 and 41991283]the Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai).
文摘The 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) and 10-20-day ISO are two dominant oscillation modes over the western North Pacific during boreal summer.With daily data derived from eight CMIP5 models,changes of the ISO intensities are projected under the 1.5 and 2.0℃ global warming levels under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.Most of the models agree that the ISO intensities increase along a belt region from the south Indochina Peninsula(ICP) to the east to the Philippines.The variation pattern shows little difference between different warming levels or scenarios.Results indicate that the spatial distribution of ISO anomalies is related with the variation of background fields.Enriched lower-level humidity and moist static energy favor the intensity increases of ISOs,which are projected to be larger over the whole western North Pacific,with the most conspicuous changes located over the east to the Philippines for humidity but over the south of the ICP for moist static energy.In contrast,the ISOs over the west to Indonesia and northeast to the Philippines decrease,which is consistent with the local descending motions.
文摘21世纪平流层气候变化主要由两个因素所决定,一个是臭氧层恢复造成的变暖,另一个是温室气体增加造成的变冷。针对在这两种相反的辐射效应作用下,平流层气温如何变化这一重要问题,使用CMIP5未来情景模拟试验的结果,对2006—2100年间的平流层温度的变化趋势进行分析。结果表明,臭氧恢复的增温效应在平流层低层起主导作用,而温室气体增加的冷却效应在平流层高层起主导作用,因此,平流层低层(70 h Pa以下)呈变暖趋势,而平流层中高层呈变冷趋势。通过对包含完整平流层的气候模式(高顶模式)和只包含部分平流层的气候模式(低顶模式)预估的温度趋势的差异进行分析,发现高顶模式预估的变暖趋势大于低顶模式的结果,这意味着模式是否包含完整平流层有可能对预估的平流层和对流层未来气候变化有重要影响。
