摘要
利用尼洋河流域水文资料,选择DBC统计降尺度方法,以1979~1998年作为率定期,1999~2005年作为检验期,对尼洋河流域的降水、最高气温和最低气温系列进行尺度降解,并耦合GCM和两种代表性浓度路径情景,选用1979~2005年作为基准年,2021~2099年作为未来时段,预测尼洋河流域未来降水、气温、蒸发变化。结果表明:DBC方法对尼洋河流域月均降水、月均气温和蒸发的模拟能力较强;在CCLM模式下,尼洋河流域的年降雨量相较于基准期模拟值,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5浓度路径下均有小幅的增加趋势;尼洋河流域未来时期各月均温度和蒸发基本处于上升趋势,且RCP8.5情景相对于RCP4.5情景,21世纪末增幅更为明显。研究结果为尼洋河流域洪涝灾害防治工作和水资源优化配置供参考依据。
The precipitation, the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature were downscaled in NiYang river basin by using the hydrological data of NiYang river basin, choosing the DBC（Daily bias correction） as the statistical downscaling method, selecting the metreorological data from 1979 to 1998 in calibration periods, and taking the data from 1999 to 2005 in validation periods. The climatic variation, variations of precipitation and temperature were investigated in NiYang river basin by coupling GCM（Global Climate Model） and two representative concentration pathways（RCP4.5 and RCPS.5）. The future climate date including precipitation, temperature and evaporation was generated according to the metreorological data of the Nyingchi weather stations by the data of the metreorological data from 1979 to 2005 as baseline year, and the data from 2021 to 2099 as the next period of time on NiYang river Basin. The result showed that the DBC model was simulated the monthly precipitation, monthly evaporation and monthly temperature. The annual rainfall had an uptick both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 under the CCLM by contrasting the baseline year. The future climate period including monthly evaporation and monthly temperature, relatived to the RCP4.5, which increased significantly by the end of the 21th century under the RCP8.5. The results provided the referencefor flood disaster prevention and the integrated management in NiYang river basin.
作者
张东艳
吴运卿
侯雨坤
ZHANG Dongyan;WU Yunqing;HOU Yukun(Department of Water Resources and Civil Engineering,Tibet Agriculture and Animal Husbandry University,Nyingchi Tibet,860000,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)
出处
《高原农业》
2017年第1期45-52,共8页
Journal of Plateau Agriculture
基金
西藏自治区高校青年教师创新支持计划项目(QC2015-45)
关键词
气候变化
尼洋河流域
统计降尺度模型
典型浓度路径
预测
Climatic change
NiYang river Basin
Statistical downscaling model
Representativeconcentration pathways
Prediction
