We investigated the performance of 12 different physics configurations of the climate version of the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) domain. Possible combinat...We investigated the performance of 12 different physics configurations of the climate version of the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) domain. Possible combinations among two Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL), three Cumulus (CUM) and two Microphysics (MIC) schemes were tested. The 2-year simulations (December 1988-November 1990) have been compared with gridded observational data and station measurements for several variables, including total precipitation and maximum and minimum 2-meter air temperature. An objective ranking method of the 12 different simulations and the selection procedure of the best performing configuration for the MENA domain are based on several statistical metrics and carried out for relevant sub-domains and individual stations. The setup for cloud microphysics is found to have the strongest impact on temperature biases while precipitation is most sensitive to the cumulus parameterization scheme and mainly in the tropics.展开更多
This study addresses whether gold exhibits the function of a hedge or safe haven as often referred to in academia.It contributes to the existing literature by(i)revisiting this question for the principal stock markets...This study addresses whether gold exhibits the function of a hedge or safe haven as often referred to in academia.It contributes to the existing literature by(i)revisiting this question for the principal stock markets in the Middle East and North Africa(MENA)region and(ii)using the copula-quantile-on-quantile and conditional value at risk methods to detail the risks facing market participants provided with accurate information about various gold and stock market scenarios(i.e.,bear,normal,bull).The results provide strong evidence of quantile dependence between gold and stock returns.Positive correlations are found between MENA gold and stock markets when both are bullish.Conversely,when stock returns are bearish,gold markets show negative correlations with MENA stock markets.The risk spillover from gold to stock markets intensified during the global financial and European crises.Given the risk spillover between gold and stock markets,investors in MENA markets should be careful when considering gold as a safe haven because its effectiveness as a hedge is not the same in all MENA stock markets.Investors and portfolio managers should rebalance their portfolio compositions under various gold and stock market conditions.Overall,such precise insights about the heterogeneous linkages and spillovers between gold and MENA stock returns provide potential input for developing effective hedging strategies and optimal portfolio allocations.展开更多
Countries in the Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) region are among the most water-scarce regions in the world, and their dryland soils are usually poor in organic carbon content (<0.5%). In this study, we su...Countries in the Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) region are among the most water-scarce regions in the world, and their dryland soils are usually poor in organic carbon content (<0.5%). In this study, we summarize examples of how people in the few oases of the MENA region overcome environmental challenges by sustainably managing economically important date production. On the basis of the limited studies found in the existing literature, this mini-review focuses on the role of traditional soil organic matter amendments beneath the soil surface as a key tool in land restoration. We conclude that soil organic matter amendments can be very successful in restoring soil water and preventing the soil from salinization.展开更多
A grey model with periodic term for sea-level analysis is presented.The present model keeps some advantages of tea GM (1, 1 )model, which well reflects the trend of sea-level changes and gives out the change rate as ...A grey model with periodic term for sea-level analysis is presented.The present model keeps some advantages of tea GM (1, 1 )model, which well reflects the trend of sea-level changes and gives out the change rate as well as the acceleration of sea level conveniently.level conveniently.In addition, the present model can reproduce the periodic phenomena of sealevel, hence, it overcomes the shortcomings of the GM(1,1) model that is unsuitable for forecasting monthly mean sealevel with apparent periodicity, and its prediction accuracy is improved.The present model is used to analyse Guangxi coast sea level,the results show that the rise rates of relative sea level at Beihai, Weizhou and Bailongwei are 1 .67,2 .51 and 0.89 mm/a respectively, the relative sea level at Shitoubu has a falling trend with a rate of 0. 5- 1 .0 mm/a, the rise rate of eustatic sea level along the Guangxi coast is 2 .0 mm/a. In comparison with the model with a lineartrend term plus a periodic term, the simulation accuracies of both models are about the same.展开更多
The chronic water shortage in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region is a perplexing issue, undoubtedly because various operational sectors, multi-institutions and stakeholders are inextricably interconnected. In ...The chronic water shortage in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region is a perplexing issue, undoubtedly because various operational sectors, multi-institutions and stakeholders are inextricably interconnected. In the light of climate variability and the unprecedented population growth rate, the per capita water resources and biocapacity will continue plummeting, and the demand-gap will seriously expand. Existing water quantification agreements have been deemed inefficient to solve the problem of naturally diminishing water resources and thus require immediate re-assembling. Most scholarly endeavors, including key international organizations, NGOs, and “Think Tank” policy briefs have limitedly addressed water shortage in contexts of regional politics, mass media, and, importantly, from social psychology perspectives. Therefore, a thorough analysis and interdisciplinary approach is required to find a feasible and suitable framework of solutions and from a multi-perspective podium. A synthesis of cross-sectorial bottlenecks that are crucial to water management is presented, and a suite of practical recommendations are introduced to water authorities and governments. This study argues that in the shadow of the region’s political instability, the clash of ideologies and its repercussions, and issues of national security and sovereignty, regional cooperation on water issues remain prognostications. In this essence, governments of MENA countries are urged to develop measures to substantially increase the water supply through innovative approaches. Such measures include enhancing the capacities of water harvesting, maximizing the storage capacities of the built dams, and deploying groundwater recharge techniques. Furthermore, seawater and brackish water desalination through clean energy technologies is a contemporary solution with socio-economic and multiple benefits. Multi-billion water projects might not be suitable approach in the absence of external funding and the aforementioned hurdles. Further research i展开更多
Our research topic is about the economic situation in the Middle East and North Africa （MENA） oil exporters after the global crisis in 2008. The authors tried to find the answers to the questions such as ＂How bad o...Our research topic is about the economic situation in the Middle East and North Africa （MENA） oil exporters after the global crisis in 2008. The authors tried to find the answers to the questions such as ＂How bad or good is the situation there？＂ and ＂what is the expectation about the future of the region？＂ Like other countries around the world, the MENA oil exporters, comprised of Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, United Arab Emirates, Yemen were adversely affected by the global crisis. The MENA oil exporters are recently recovering from their recession in 2009 when the global crisis was felt intensively there. GDP in the region has grown by 3.5 percent in 2010 after a low growth of 0.7 percent in 2009. The average real GDP growth excluding Libya is projected to reach 4.9 percent in 2011. Two developments mark the outlook： the unrest in the region and the surge in global fuel and food prices. For most oil exporters, the expected increase in oil prices and production volumes will lead to higher growth in 2011 and stronger fiscal and external balances, notwithstanding recent increases in government spending. The oil exporters＇ combined external current account surplus is estimated to increase. The effects of the political events in Tunisia and Egypt have spread in varying degrees to the MENA oil exporters in the region, and many of these countries are responding with public spending and job-creation measures to alleviate social tensions. The social unrest also highlights the need to pursue fundamental economic reforms--social policy, fiscal management, governance, business environment, labor markets, and financial sector access to facilitate more inclusive economic growth. While the MENA countries are generally divided into two sub-regions such as ＂oil exporters＂ and ＂oil importers＂ in the economic literature, the authors will deal with only the MENA oil exporters in this work. The negative effects of the global crisis in these countries on gr展开更多
Contamination of surface and underground water by sea level rise, surface runoff, and land use activities such as industrial and agricultural activities can lead to water scarcity. Water could be available and accessi...Contamination of surface and underground water by sea level rise, surface runoff, and land use activities such as industrial and agricultural activities can lead to water scarcity. Water could be available and accessible but not suitable for human use. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region countries, the agriculture sector depends massively on water for farming activities, which consumes about 80% of the available water resources. In this context, the issue of environmental water scarcity is under highlighted, though the use of this term itself is still lacking in an international context (FAO). Meanwhile, the international goal of universal access to clean freshwater is included in global development targets (SDGs). This study provides some insights and deepens our understanding on environmental water scarcity, particularly MEN-A region countries. This review paper begins with an introduction to water scarcity and continues with a discussion of environmental issues associated with water scarcity in MENA region countries. Finally, we suggest some adaptive measures in two distinct areas such as agriculture sectors and policy makers and conclude that the lack of implementation of this particular term is hindering sustainable development in MENA region countries.展开更多
Background: In our previous study, we identified a candidate tumor suppressor gene, testin LIM domain protein (TES), in primary gastric cancer (GC). TES contains three LIM domains, which are specific interacting regio...Background: In our previous study, we identified a candidate tumor suppressor gene, testin LIM domain protein (TES), in primary gastric cancer (GC). TES contains three LIM domains, which are specific interacting regions for the cell adhesion and cytoskeleton regulatory proteins. Mena is a known cytoskeleton regulator that regulates the assembly of actin filaments and modulates cell adhesion and motility by interacting with Lamellipodin (Lpd). Therefore, we hypothesized that TES plays a role as tumor suppressor in GC through interacting with Mena. This study aimed to investigate the tumor suppressive functions of TES in GC. Methods: We explored the tumor suppressive effect of TES in GC by in vitro cell proliferation assay, colony formation assay, cell cycle analysis, Transwell assays, and in vivo tumorigenicity and metastasis assays. The interaction of TES and Mena was investigated through immunoprecipitation-based mass spectrometry. We also analyzed the expression of TES and Mena in 172 GC specimens using immunohistochemistry and investigated the clinicopathological and prog-nostic significance of TES and Mena in GC. Results: TES suppressed GC cell proliferation and colony formation, induced cell cycle arrest, and inhibited tumorigenicity in vitro. Additionally, it inhibited GC cell migration and invasion in vitro and suppressed metastasis in vivo. TES interacted with Mena, and inhibited the interaction of Mena with Lpd. Transwell assays suggested that TES suppressed migration and invasion of GC cells in a Mena-dependent fashion. In GC patients with high Mena expression, the expression of TES was associated with tumor infiltration (P = 0.005), lymph node metastasis (P = 0.003), TNM stage (P = 0.003), and prognosis (P = 0.010). However, no significant association was observed in GC patients with low Mena expression. Conclusions: We believe that TES functions as a Mena-dependent tumor suppressor. TES represents a valuable prog-nostic marker and potential target for GC treatment.展开更多
The world is facing a big challenge of climatic change, mainly due to increasing concentrations of GHGs （greenhouse gases） in the atmosphere. Many researches indicated that the climate change occurred disproportiona...The world is facing a big challenge of climatic change, mainly due to increasing concentrations of GHGs （greenhouse gases） in the atmosphere. Many researches indicated that the climate change occurred disproportionately on developing countries such as MENA （Middle East and North Africa） countries. The climatic model CGCM3.1 （T47） 2 is used in this research to explain the changes in average temperatures and the rainfall on the MENA region with special emphases on Iraq. Historical records （1900-2009） and future （2020-2099） were studied and compared; each period was divided to four sub-periods of thirty years. The results showed that the average monthly temperature for the four historical periods fluctuated between the lowest and highest value as follows： 9.2-32.9, 10.3-32.7, 9.3-32.8 and 8.6-33.9 （℃）. The rainfall for historical periods kept on the same distribution during the past 109 years, and fluctuated between the lowest and highest value of 21.3 mm and 37.6 mm with an average that reached up to 26.51 mm. For the future period, the maximum average monthly temperature reached up to 37.41 （℃） during June and minimum average monthly temperature reached up to 4.24 （℃） during January. The average monthly temperature fluctuated giving a clear impression that the future portends a higher temperature. The average monthly rainfall, for the future period, fluctuated between the lowest and highest value of 12.91 mm and 20.63 mm with an average that reached 16.84 mm which represent a reduction percentage of about 36.47% relative to the historical record of rainfall for the sanae months.展开更多
Carbon emission is inevitable,and changes with energy consumption and economic development,presents policy options toward sustainable development path.Currently,there is little assurance from policymakers in committin...Carbon emission is inevitable,and changes with energy consumption and economic development,presents policy options toward sustainable development path.Currently,there is little assurance from policymakers in committing to climate change pledges:taking the Middle-East and North African(MENA)region as a specific case with using 2019 as a cut-off period.We conducted an interim assessment of the Paris Agreement to ascertain whether climate actions are in tandem with emissions reduction targets.Making use of difference-in-difference technique as a quasiexperiment supported by fixed-effects and placebo treatment models,the results point to evidence of less than 1%effective CO_(2) emissions reduction as of 2019 compared to the 2015 level.The current carbon emissions reduction commitment level is far-reaching contrary to the Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)pledged(16.43%on average by 2030 compared to the 2015 level).The analysis suggests that achieving NDCs commitments are currently major burden on policymakers since the economic development is highly linked with nonrenewable energy consumption.Furthermore,a more comprehensive framework when accounting for all available renewable and clean energy projects shows reduction levels in the range of 30%-40%from 2020 to 2030.These results suggest that the Paris Agreement in MENA countries may be more effective from 2020,thus underscore the importance of capturing ongoing projects(involving renewable and clean energy technologies)into interim policy assessment.The shared implication is that greater efforts are demanded from the region and at country levels to further decrease emissions through the use of negative emissions technologies particularly in the electricity generation sector.展开更多
The political upheavals in the Arab world during 2011 challenged the political status quo and have irrevocably paved the way toward transformation in the Middle East and North Africa （MENA）, The longstanding structu...The political upheavals in the Arab world during 2011 challenged the political status quo and have irrevocably paved the way toward transformation in the Middle East and North Africa （MENA）, The longstanding structural impediments to equitable growth and social justice afflicting the Arab world came to a head through a combination of persistently poverty, high unemployment, particularly among educated youth, rampant corruption, deficit of democratic governance, and essential freedoms. Yemen is the third country of the Middle Eastern countries which turmoil sparked in. All the uprisings connote of social, political and economic discontent and frustration. The main question and issue of this paper is to answer： What conditions breed change to Yemen？ The paper spotlights ＂relative deprivation＂ of Ted Robert Gurr as the most relevant theory to illustrate roots of the Yemen uprising. Relative deprivation theory holds that instead of an absolute standard deprivation, a gap between expectations and reality leads men to political violence. Therefore, this study is to utilize relative deprivation theory to explain how socio-economic shortages （such as high unemployment and education, along with poverty） and political inefficiencies of the Yemen＇s authoritarian regime led to public and collective discontent and upheaval. The intervened variables such as ＂ethnicity, race, religion, and sexuality＂ and international parameters have not been considered,展开更多
文摘We investigated the performance of 12 different physics configurations of the climate version of the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) domain. Possible combinations among two Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL), three Cumulus (CUM) and two Microphysics (MIC) schemes were tested. The 2-year simulations (December 1988-November 1990) have been compared with gridded observational data and station measurements for several variables, including total precipitation and maximum and minimum 2-meter air temperature. An objective ranking method of the 12 different simulations and the selection procedure of the best performing configuration for the MENA domain are based on several statistical metrics and carried out for relevant sub-domains and individual stations. The setup for cloud microphysics is found to have the strongest impact on temperature biases while precipitation is most sensitive to the cumulus parameterization scheme and mainly in the tropics.
文摘This study addresses whether gold exhibits the function of a hedge or safe haven as often referred to in academia.It contributes to the existing literature by(i)revisiting this question for the principal stock markets in the Middle East and North Africa(MENA)region and(ii)using the copula-quantile-on-quantile and conditional value at risk methods to detail the risks facing market participants provided with accurate information about various gold and stock market scenarios(i.e.,bear,normal,bull).The results provide strong evidence of quantile dependence between gold and stock returns.Positive correlations are found between MENA gold and stock markets when both are bullish.Conversely,when stock returns are bearish,gold markets show negative correlations with MENA stock markets.The risk spillover from gold to stock markets intensified during the global financial and European crises.Given the risk spillover between gold and stock markets,investors in MENA markets should be careful when considering gold as a safe haven because its effectiveness as a hedge is not the same in all MENA stock markets.Investors and portfolio managers should rebalance their portfolio compositions under various gold and stock market conditions.Overall,such precise insights about the heterogeneous linkages and spillovers between gold and MENA stock returns provide potential input for developing effective hedging strategies and optimal portfolio allocations.
基金supported by the Exploratory Grant(STC_TUNGER-006/INTOASES)as part of the Bilateral Scientific and Technological Cooperation between the Republic of Tunisia and the Federal Republic of Germany
文摘Countries in the Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) region are among the most water-scarce regions in the world, and their dryland soils are usually poor in organic carbon content (<0.5%). In this study, we summarize examples of how people in the few oases of the MENA region overcome environmental challenges by sustainably managing economically important date production. On the basis of the limited studies found in the existing literature, this mini-review focuses on the role of traditional soil organic matter amendments beneath the soil surface as a key tool in land restoration. We conclude that soil organic matter amendments can be very successful in restoring soil water and preventing the soil from salinization.
文摘A grey model with periodic term for sea-level analysis is presented.The present model keeps some advantages of tea GM (1, 1 )model, which well reflects the trend of sea-level changes and gives out the change rate as well as the acceleration of sea level conveniently.level conveniently.In addition, the present model can reproduce the periodic phenomena of sealevel, hence, it overcomes the shortcomings of the GM(1,1) model that is unsuitable for forecasting monthly mean sealevel with apparent periodicity, and its prediction accuracy is improved.The present model is used to analyse Guangxi coast sea level,the results show that the rise rates of relative sea level at Beihai, Weizhou and Bailongwei are 1 .67,2 .51 and 0.89 mm/a respectively, the relative sea level at Shitoubu has a falling trend with a rate of 0. 5- 1 .0 mm/a, the rise rate of eustatic sea level along the Guangxi coast is 2 .0 mm/a. In comparison with the model with a lineartrend term plus a periodic term, the simulation accuracies of both models are about the same.
文摘The chronic water shortage in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region is a perplexing issue, undoubtedly because various operational sectors, multi-institutions and stakeholders are inextricably interconnected. In the light of climate variability and the unprecedented population growth rate, the per capita water resources and biocapacity will continue plummeting, and the demand-gap will seriously expand. Existing water quantification agreements have been deemed inefficient to solve the problem of naturally diminishing water resources and thus require immediate re-assembling. Most scholarly endeavors, including key international organizations, NGOs, and “Think Tank” policy briefs have limitedly addressed water shortage in contexts of regional politics, mass media, and, importantly, from social psychology perspectives. Therefore, a thorough analysis and interdisciplinary approach is required to find a feasible and suitable framework of solutions and from a multi-perspective podium. A synthesis of cross-sectorial bottlenecks that are crucial to water management is presented, and a suite of practical recommendations are introduced to water authorities and governments. This study argues that in the shadow of the region’s political instability, the clash of ideologies and its repercussions, and issues of national security and sovereignty, regional cooperation on water issues remain prognostications. In this essence, governments of MENA countries are urged to develop measures to substantially increase the water supply through innovative approaches. Such measures include enhancing the capacities of water harvesting, maximizing the storage capacities of the built dams, and deploying groundwater recharge techniques. Furthermore, seawater and brackish water desalination through clean energy technologies is a contemporary solution with socio-economic and multiple benefits. Multi-billion water projects might not be suitable approach in the absence of external funding and the aforementioned hurdles. Further research i
文摘Our research topic is about the economic situation in the Middle East and North Africa （MENA） oil exporters after the global crisis in 2008. The authors tried to find the answers to the questions such as ＂How bad or good is the situation there？＂ and ＂what is the expectation about the future of the region？＂ Like other countries around the world, the MENA oil exporters, comprised of Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, United Arab Emirates, Yemen were adversely affected by the global crisis. The MENA oil exporters are recently recovering from their recession in 2009 when the global crisis was felt intensively there. GDP in the region has grown by 3.5 percent in 2010 after a low growth of 0.7 percent in 2009. The average real GDP growth excluding Libya is projected to reach 4.9 percent in 2011. Two developments mark the outlook： the unrest in the region and the surge in global fuel and food prices. For most oil exporters, the expected increase in oil prices and production volumes will lead to higher growth in 2011 and stronger fiscal and external balances, notwithstanding recent increases in government spending. The oil exporters＇ combined external current account surplus is estimated to increase. The effects of the political events in Tunisia and Egypt have spread in varying degrees to the MENA oil exporters in the region, and many of these countries are responding with public spending and job-creation measures to alleviate social tensions. The social unrest also highlights the need to pursue fundamental economic reforms--social policy, fiscal management, governance, business environment, labor markets, and financial sector access to facilitate more inclusive economic growth. While the MENA countries are generally divided into two sub-regions such as ＂oil exporters＂ and ＂oil importers＂ in the economic literature, the authors will deal with only the MENA oil exporters in this work. The negative effects of the global crisis in these countries on gr
文摘Contamination of surface and underground water by sea level rise, surface runoff, and land use activities such as industrial and agricultural activities can lead to water scarcity. Water could be available and accessible but not suitable for human use. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region countries, the agriculture sector depends massively on water for farming activities, which consumes about 80% of the available water resources. In this context, the issue of environmental water scarcity is under highlighted, though the use of this term itself is still lacking in an international context (FAO). Meanwhile, the international goal of universal access to clean freshwater is included in global development targets (SDGs). This study provides some insights and deepens our understanding on environmental water scarcity, particularly MEN-A region countries. This review paper begins with an introduction to water scarcity and continues with a discussion of environmental issues associated with water scarcity in MENA region countries. Finally, we suggest some adaptive measures in two distinct areas such as agriculture sectors and policy makers and conclude that the lack of implementation of this particular term is hindering sustainable development in MENA region countries.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant Numbers 81572865,31501132,81773110,81402281 and 81402560]Guangdong Province Science and Technology Plan Project[Grant Number 2012A030400059]+1 种基金The Innovation Project of Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences,the Shandong Key Research and Development Plan[Grant Number 2016GSF202042]The Distinguished Experts of Taishan Scholar Project[Grant Number ts201511074].
文摘Background: In our previous study, we identified a candidate tumor suppressor gene, testin LIM domain protein (TES), in primary gastric cancer (GC). TES contains three LIM domains, which are specific interacting regions for the cell adhesion and cytoskeleton regulatory proteins. Mena is a known cytoskeleton regulator that regulates the assembly of actin filaments and modulates cell adhesion and motility by interacting with Lamellipodin (Lpd). Therefore, we hypothesized that TES plays a role as tumor suppressor in GC through interacting with Mena. This study aimed to investigate the tumor suppressive functions of TES in GC. Methods: We explored the tumor suppressive effect of TES in GC by in vitro cell proliferation assay, colony formation assay, cell cycle analysis, Transwell assays, and in vivo tumorigenicity and metastasis assays. The interaction of TES and Mena was investigated through immunoprecipitation-based mass spectrometry. We also analyzed the expression of TES and Mena in 172 GC specimens using immunohistochemistry and investigated the clinicopathological and prog-nostic significance of TES and Mena in GC. Results: TES suppressed GC cell proliferation and colony formation, induced cell cycle arrest, and inhibited tumorigenicity in vitro. Additionally, it inhibited GC cell migration and invasion in vitro and suppressed metastasis in vivo. TES interacted with Mena, and inhibited the interaction of Mena with Lpd. Transwell assays suggested that TES suppressed migration and invasion of GC cells in a Mena-dependent fashion. In GC patients with high Mena expression, the expression of TES was associated with tumor infiltration (P = 0.005), lymph node metastasis (P = 0.003), TNM stage (P = 0.003), and prognosis (P = 0.010). However, no significant association was observed in GC patients with low Mena expression. Conclusions: We believe that TES functions as a Mena-dependent tumor suppressor. TES represents a valuable prog-nostic marker and potential target for GC treatment.
文摘The world is facing a big challenge of climatic change, mainly due to increasing concentrations of GHGs （greenhouse gases） in the atmosphere. Many researches indicated that the climate change occurred disproportionately on developing countries such as MENA （Middle East and North Africa） countries. The climatic model CGCM3.1 （T47） 2 is used in this research to explain the changes in average temperatures and the rainfall on the MENA region with special emphases on Iraq. Historical records （1900-2009） and future （2020-2099） were studied and compared; each period was divided to four sub-periods of thirty years. The results showed that the average monthly temperature for the four historical periods fluctuated between the lowest and highest value as follows： 9.2-32.9, 10.3-32.7, 9.3-32.8 and 8.6-33.9 （℃）. The rainfall for historical periods kept on the same distribution during the past 109 years, and fluctuated between the lowest and highest value of 21.3 mm and 37.6 mm with an average that reached up to 26.51 mm. For the future period, the maximum average monthly temperature reached up to 37.41 （℃） during June and minimum average monthly temperature reached up to 4.24 （℃） during January. The average monthly temperature fluctuated giving a clear impression that the future portends a higher temperature. The average monthly rainfall, for the future period, fluctuated between the lowest and highest value of 12.91 mm and 20.63 mm with an average that reached 16.84 mm which represent a reduction percentage of about 36.47% relative to the historical record of rainfall for the sanae months.
基金supported by the funding of Belt and Road Research Institute,Xiamen University(No:1500-X2101200)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Key Program,No 72133003).
文摘Carbon emission is inevitable,and changes with energy consumption and economic development,presents policy options toward sustainable development path.Currently,there is little assurance from policymakers in committing to climate change pledges:taking the Middle-East and North African(MENA)region as a specific case with using 2019 as a cut-off period.We conducted an interim assessment of the Paris Agreement to ascertain whether climate actions are in tandem with emissions reduction targets.Making use of difference-in-difference technique as a quasiexperiment supported by fixed-effects and placebo treatment models,the results point to evidence of less than 1%effective CO_(2) emissions reduction as of 2019 compared to the 2015 level.The current carbon emissions reduction commitment level is far-reaching contrary to the Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)pledged(16.43%on average by 2030 compared to the 2015 level).The analysis suggests that achieving NDCs commitments are currently major burden on policymakers since the economic development is highly linked with nonrenewable energy consumption.Furthermore,a more comprehensive framework when accounting for all available renewable and clean energy projects shows reduction levels in the range of 30%-40%from 2020 to 2030.These results suggest that the Paris Agreement in MENA countries may be more effective from 2020,thus underscore the importance of capturing ongoing projects(involving renewable and clean energy technologies)into interim policy assessment.The shared implication is that greater efforts are demanded from the region and at country levels to further decrease emissions through the use of negative emissions technologies particularly in the electricity generation sector.
文摘The political upheavals in the Arab world during 2011 challenged the political status quo and have irrevocably paved the way toward transformation in the Middle East and North Africa （MENA）, The longstanding structural impediments to equitable growth and social justice afflicting the Arab world came to a head through a combination of persistently poverty, high unemployment, particularly among educated youth, rampant corruption, deficit of democratic governance, and essential freedoms. Yemen is the third country of the Middle Eastern countries which turmoil sparked in. All the uprisings connote of social, political and economic discontent and frustration. The main question and issue of this paper is to answer： What conditions breed change to Yemen？ The paper spotlights ＂relative deprivation＂ of Ted Robert Gurr as the most relevant theory to illustrate roots of the Yemen uprising. Relative deprivation theory holds that instead of an absolute standard deprivation, a gap between expectations and reality leads men to political violence. Therefore, this study is to utilize relative deprivation theory to explain how socio-economic shortages （such as high unemployment and education, along with poverty） and political inefficiencies of the Yemen＇s authoritarian regime led to public and collective discontent and upheaval. The intervened variables such as ＂ethnicity, race, religion, and sexuality＂ and international parameters have not been considered,
