As iron ore is the fundamental steel production resource,predicting its price is strategically important for risk management at related enterprises and projects.Based on a signal decomposition technology and an artifi...As iron ore is the fundamental steel production resource,predicting its price is strategically important for risk management at related enterprises and projects.Based on a signal decomposition technology and an artificial neural network,this paper proposes a hybrid EEMD-GORU model and a novel data reconstruction method to explore the price risk and fluctuation correlations between China's iron ore futures and spot markets,and to forecast the price index series of China's and international iron ore spot markets from the futures market.The analysis found that the iron ore futures market in China better reflected the price fluctuations and risk factors in the imported and international iron ore spot markets.However,the forward price in China's iron ore futures market was unable to adequately reflect the changes in the domestic iron ore market,and was therefore unable to fully disseminate domestic iron ore market information.The proposed model was found to provide better market risk perceptions and predictions through its combinations of the different volatility information in futures and spot markets.The results are valuable ref-erences for the early-warning and management of the related enterprise project risks.展开更多
Grand infrastructure projects,such as dam,power plant,petroleum,and gas industry projects,have several contractors working on them in several independent sub-projects.The concern of reducing the duration of these proj...Grand infrastructure projects,such as dam,power plant,petroleum,and gas industry projects,have several contractors working on them in several independent sub-projects.The concern of reducing the duration of these projects is one of the important issues among various aspects;thus,our aim is to fulfill the requirements by using the game theory approach.In this study,a mixed-integer programming model consisting of game theory and project scheduling is developed to reduce the duration of projects with a minimum increase in costs.In this model,two contractors in successive periods are entered into a step-by-step competition by the employer during dynamic games,considering an exchange in their limited resources.The optimum solution of the game in each stage are selected as the strategy,and the resources during the game are considered to be renewable and limited.The strategy of each contractor can be described as follows:1)share their resources with the other contractor and 2)not share the resources with the other contractor.This model can act dynamically in all circumstances during project implementation.If a player chooses a non-optimum strategy,then this strategy can immediately update itself at the succeeding time period.The proposed model is solved using the exact Benders decomposition method,which is coded in GAMS software.The results suggest the implementation of four step-by-step games between the contractors.Then,the results of our model are compared with those of the conventional models.The projects’duration in our model is reduced by 22.2%.The nominal revenue of both contractors has also reached a significant value of 46078 units compared with the relative value of zero units in the original model.Moreover,we observed in both projects the decreases of 19.5%,20.9%,and 19.7%in the total stagnation of resources of types 1,2,and 3,respectively.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation(NSFC)Programs of China[91646113,71722014,71471141,and 71350007]the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[2019CSWZ002].
文摘As iron ore is the fundamental steel production resource,predicting its price is strategically important for risk management at related enterprises and projects.Based on a signal decomposition technology and an artificial neural network,this paper proposes a hybrid EEMD-GORU model and a novel data reconstruction method to explore the price risk and fluctuation correlations between China's iron ore futures and spot markets,and to forecast the price index series of China's and international iron ore spot markets from the futures market.The analysis found that the iron ore futures market in China better reflected the price fluctuations and risk factors in the imported and international iron ore spot markets.However,the forward price in China's iron ore futures market was unable to adequately reflect the changes in the domestic iron ore market,and was therefore unable to fully disseminate domestic iron ore market information.The proposed model was found to provide better market risk perceptions and predictions through its combinations of the different volatility information in futures and spot markets.The results are valuable ref-erences for the early-warning and management of the related enterprise project risks.
文摘Grand infrastructure projects,such as dam,power plant,petroleum,and gas industry projects,have several contractors working on them in several independent sub-projects.The concern of reducing the duration of these projects is one of the important issues among various aspects;thus,our aim is to fulfill the requirements by using the game theory approach.In this study,a mixed-integer programming model consisting of game theory and project scheduling is developed to reduce the duration of projects with a minimum increase in costs.In this model,two contractors in successive periods are entered into a step-by-step competition by the employer during dynamic games,considering an exchange in their limited resources.The optimum solution of the game in each stage are selected as the strategy,and the resources during the game are considered to be renewable and limited.The strategy of each contractor can be described as follows:1)share their resources with the other contractor and 2)not share the resources with the other contractor.This model can act dynamically in all circumstances during project implementation.If a player chooses a non-optimum strategy,then this strategy can immediately update itself at the succeeding time period.The proposed model is solved using the exact Benders decomposition method,which is coded in GAMS software.The results suggest the implementation of four step-by-step games between the contractors.Then,the results of our model are compared with those of the conventional models.The projects’duration in our model is reduced by 22.2%.The nominal revenue of both contractors has also reached a significant value of 46078 units compared with the relative value of zero units in the original model.Moreover,we observed in both projects the decreases of 19.5%,20.9%,and 19.7%in the total stagnation of resources of types 1,2,and 3,respectively.
