The volume of China＇s high-technology exports has grown sharply since the implementation of its export promotion strategy ＂Revitalizing Trade through Science and Technology＂ in 1999. This paper investigates whether...The volume of China＇s high-technology exports has grown sharply since the implementation of its export promotion strategy ＂Revitalizing Trade through Science and Technology＂ in 1999. This paper investigates whether technology spillover effects are greater for hightechnology exports than for primary manufactured goods exports. We present a generalized multi-sector spillover model to identify both between-spillover effects from exports towards non-exporters and within-spillover effects among export sectors. Using panel data for 31 provinces in China over the period from 1998 to 2005, we find that although high-technology export sectors have higher productivity compared with other sectors, this productivity advantage does not lead to technology spillover to both domestic sectors and other export sectors, and export technology spillover mainly derives from traditional export sectors rather than high-technology export sectors. As such findings can be largely attributed to the fact that China ＂s high-technology exports depend significantly on processing trade byforeign- invested firms, policy implications are discussed in relation to how to best promote the role of China ＂s highechnology exports during economic expansion.展开更多
Since reform and opening-up in 1978, changes in China's industrial structure have generally followed the pattern of "Kuznets facts" but still exhibits some unique characteristics, which led us to raise t...Since reform and opening-up in 1978, changes in China's industrial structure have generally followed the pattern of "Kuznets facts" but still exhibits some unique characteristics, which led us to raise the following three questions regarding China's structural transformation:(1) Why did the share of China's agricultural and manufacturing employment reduce/increase intermittently rather than continuously?(2) Why did the share of China's agricultural employment increase during certain periods? When the share of manufacturing employment reduced, why did the workforce reversely flow into agriculture rather than move to the service sector?(3) Why did growth in the share of China's service sector employment decelerate before reaching its peak? Why did the share of employment in the industrial sector suddenly increase after an abrupt decline? This paper creates a multisector economic growth model that contains non-homothetic preferences and differentiated productivity, and incorporates the "two drivers" therein for a demand-side estimation and analysis. The result shows that China's economic growth model driven by net export and investment is a critical factor for explaining the three questions regarding its structural transformation. This paper believes that only by implementing supply-side structural reforms, reducing the dependence on net export and investment, and achieving sustainable endogenous economic growth will China be able to expedite its industrial restructuring.展开更多
基金financial support from the Social Science Research Fund in China(08CJL025)the Natural Science Research Fund(71103100)the Humanity and Social Science Research Fund of China's Ministry of Education(10YJC790006)
文摘The volume of China＇s high-technology exports has grown sharply since the implementation of its export promotion strategy ＂Revitalizing Trade through Science and Technology＂ in 1999. This paper investigates whether technology spillover effects are greater for hightechnology exports than for primary manufactured goods exports. We present a generalized multi-sector spillover model to identify both between-spillover effects from exports towards non-exporters and within-spillover effects among export sectors. Using panel data for 31 provinces in China over the period from 1998 to 2005, we find that although high-technology export sectors have higher productivity compared with other sectors, this productivity advantage does not lead to technology spillover to both domestic sectors and other export sectors, and export technology spillover mainly derives from traditional export sectors rather than high-technology export sectors. As such findings can be largely attributed to the fact that China ＂s high-technology exports depend significantly on processing trade byforeign- invested firms, policy implications are discussed in relation to how to best promote the role of China ＂s highechnology exports during economic expansion.
文摘Since reform and opening-up in 1978, changes in China's industrial structure have generally followed the pattern of "Kuznets facts" but still exhibits some unique characteristics, which led us to raise the following three questions regarding China's structural transformation:(1) Why did the share of China's agricultural and manufacturing employment reduce/increase intermittently rather than continuously?(2) Why did the share of China's agricultural employment increase during certain periods? When the share of manufacturing employment reduced, why did the workforce reversely flow into agriculture rather than move to the service sector?(3) Why did growth in the share of China's service sector employment decelerate before reaching its peak? Why did the share of employment in the industrial sector suddenly increase after an abrupt decline? This paper creates a multisector economic growth model that contains non-homothetic preferences and differentiated productivity, and incorporates the "two drivers" therein for a demand-side estimation and analysis. The result shows that China's economic growth model driven by net export and investment is a critical factor for explaining the three questions regarding its structural transformation. This paper believes that only by implementing supply-side structural reforms, reducing the dependence on net export and investment, and achieving sustainable endogenous economic growth will China be able to expedite its industrial restructuring.
