摘要
作为重要的需求管理工具之一,财政政策为调控经济结构与熨平周期波动做出了巨大贡献。特别是在美联储逐步退出宽松货币政策及特朗普当选后中美"财政共振"的背景下,研究财政扩张的乘数效应及传导路径是极具理论与现实意义的。鉴于此,本文构建含有制造业部门与服务业部门的两部门DSGE模型,以分析政府消费型支出与投资型支出的结构性效应。研究发现,第一,制造业部门政府投资与政府消费型支出的财政乘数均小于服务业部门;第二,由于投资型支出不仅出现在需求端,而且通过累积公共资本的渠道进入生产端并产生了长期的供给侧拉动效应,即相较于消费型支出,投资型支出的乘数效应更明显且影响力更持久;第三,供给侧的拉动效应也将使得投资型支出的挤出效应更小。
As one of the most important management tools of demand side,fiscal policy has contributed a lot to iron the business cycle and adjust the structure of macro economy. Moreover,under the background of Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy gradually and the resonance of fiscal policy between America and China after Trump's election,it's meaningful to revisit the problem of how government spending influences the real world. In order to analyze the influence of government consumption and investment in industrial restructuring and development,we build a two-sector DSGE model including industrial sector and service sector.Using steady state calibration and Bayesian method,we estimate exogenous parameters so that the model could be much closer to reality. Simulation shows that three results are worth consideration. First,the multiplier of industrial sector is smaller than service sector. Second,government investment has stronger long-term influence than government consumption because of the positive supply side effect of accumulation of public capital.Finally,the crowding out effect of government investment is smaller than government consumption.
出处
《华中科技大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第3期98-107,共10页
Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition)
关键词
政府消费
政府投资
多部门新凯恩斯模型
长期乘数
government spending
government investment
multi-sector new Keynes model
long-term multiplier
