From the viewpoint of dynamics, it is convenient to regard the field to be predicted as a small disturbance superposed on the historical analogous field, and thus the statistical technique can be used in combining wit...From the viewpoint of dynamics, it is convenient to regard the field to be predicted as a small disturbance superposed on the historical analogous field, and thus the statistical technique can be used in combining with the dynamics. Along this line, a coupled atmosphere-earth surface analogy-dynamical model is formulated and applied to making eight seasonal predictions. All of the predictions were initiated from January and have been made from February to August of 1981 to 1988. The experiments of eight-year predictions show certain skill in seasonal prediction, and the skill scores of prediction are greater than those of single statistical analogy forecast.展开更多
对再分析资料的合成分析表明,10 h Pa北半球环状模(NAM)指数和东北亚地区地面温度(SAT)存在显著的后滞相关关系。正/负位相平流层NAM异常事件往往伴随着东北亚地区正/负异常地面温度变化。负位相NAM指数超前东北亚地面温度异常20~4...对再分析资料的合成分析表明,10 h Pa北半球环状模(NAM)指数和东北亚地区地面温度(SAT)存在显著的后滞相关关系。正/负位相平流层NAM异常事件往往伴随着东北亚地区正/负异常地面温度变化。负位相NAM指数超前东北亚地面温度异常20~40天,正位相NAM指数超前约20天。定义了有效平流层极端事件(ESE),并研究了不同标准下平流层NAM异常能够传到对流层的比例。研究表明,NAM异常下传的比例随定义标准的提高而增加。研究结果显示,平流层大气环流异常在一定程度上能够作为先兆因子来延长中国北方冬季对流层天气预报。展开更多
基金Project supported by the program of droughts and floods forecast of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River, the National Natural Science Foundation of China and National Post-doctor Science Foundation of China
文摘From the viewpoint of dynamics, it is convenient to regard the field to be predicted as a small disturbance superposed on the historical analogous field, and thus the statistical technique can be used in combining with the dynamics. Along this line, a coupled atmosphere-earth surface analogy-dynamical model is formulated and applied to making eight seasonal predictions. All of the predictions were initiated from January and have been made from February to August of 1981 to 1988. The experiments of eight-year predictions show certain skill in seasonal prediction, and the skill scores of prediction are greater than those of single statistical analogy forecast.
文摘对再分析资料的合成分析表明,10 h Pa北半球环状模(NAM)指数和东北亚地区地面温度(SAT)存在显著的后滞相关关系。正/负位相平流层NAM异常事件往往伴随着东北亚地区正/负异常地面温度变化。负位相NAM指数超前东北亚地面温度异常20~40天,正位相NAM指数超前约20天。定义了有效平流层极端事件(ESE),并研究了不同标准下平流层NAM异常能够传到对流层的比例。研究表明,NAM异常下传的比例随定义标准的提高而增加。研究结果显示,平流层大气环流异常在一定程度上能够作为先兆因子来延长中国北方冬季对流层天气预报。