摘要
From the viewpoint of dynamics, it is convenient to regard the field to be predicted as a small disturbance superposed on the historical analogous field, and thus the statistical technique can be used in combining with the dynamics. Along this line, a coupled atmosphere-earth surface analogy-dynamical model is formulated and applied to making eight seasonal predictions. All of the predictions were initiated from January and have been made from February to August of 1981 to 1988. The experiments of eight-year predictions show certain skill in seasonal prediction, and the skill scores of prediction are greater than those of single statistical analogy forecast.
From the viewpoint of dynamics, it is convenient to regard the field to be predicted as a small disturbance superposed on the historical analogous field, and thus the statistical technique can be used in combining with the dynamics. Along this line, a coupled atmosphere-earth surface analogy-dynamical model is formulated and applied to making eight seasonal predictions. All of the predictions were initiated from January and have been made from February to August of 1981 to 1988. The experiments of eight-year predictions show certain skill in seasonal prediction, and the skill scores of prediction are greater than those of single statistical analogy forecast.
基金
Project supported by the program of droughts and floods forecast of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River, the National Natural Science Foundation of China and National Post-doctor Science Foundation of China
