The 21-yr ensemble predictions of model precipitation and circulation in the East Asian and western North Pacific （Asia-Pacific） summer monsoon region （0°-50°N, 100° 150°E） were evaluated in ni...The 21-yr ensemble predictions of model precipitation and circulation in the East Asian and western North Pacific （Asia-Pacific） summer monsoon region （0°-50°N, 100° 150°E） were evaluated in nine different AGCM, used in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center （APCC） multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction system. The analysis indicates that the precipitation anomaly patterns of model ensemble predictions are substantially different from the observed counterparts in this region, but the summer monsoon circulations are reasonably predicted. For example, all models can well produce the interannual variability of the western North Pacific monsoon index （WNPMI） defined by 850 hPa winds, but they failed to predict the relationship between WNPMI and precipitation anomalies. The interannual variability of the 500 hPa geopotential height （GPH） can be well predicted by the models in contrast to precipitation anomalies. On the basis of such model performances and the relationship between the interannual variations of 500 hPa GPH and precipitation anomalies, we developed a statistical scheme used to downscale the summer monsoon precipitation anomaly on the basis of EOF and singular value decomposition （SVD）. In this scheme, the three leading EOF modes of 500 hPa GPH anomaly fields predicted by the models are firstly corrected by the linear regression between the principal components in each model and observation, respectively. Then, the corrected model GPH is chosen as the predictor to downscale the precipitation anomaly field, which is assembled by the forecasted expansion coefficients of model 500 hPa GPH and the three leading SVD modes of observed precipitation anomaly corresponding to the prediction of model 500 hPa GPH during a 19-year training period. The cross-validated forecasts suggest that this downscaling scheme may have a potential to improve the forecast skill of the precipitation anomaly in the South China Sea, western North Pacific and the East Asia Pacific regions, wh展开更多
Based on the ensemble mean outputs of the ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF （European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts）, JMA （Japan Meteorological Agency）, NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Predic...Based on the ensemble mean outputs of the ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF （European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts）, JMA （Japan Meteorological Agency）, NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction）, and UKMO （United Kingdom Met Office） in THORPEX （The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment） Interactive Grand Global Ensemble （TIGGE） datasets, for the Northern Hemisphere （10~ 87.5~N, 0~ 360~） from i June 2007 to 31 August 2007, this study carried out multimodel ensemble forecasts of surface temperature and 500-hPa geopotential height, temperature and winds up to 168 h by using the bias-removed ensemble mean （BREM）, the multiple linear regression based superensemble （LRSUP）, and the neural network based superensemble （NNSUP） techniques for the forecast period from 8 to 31 August 2007. A running training period is used for BREM and LRSUP ensemble forecast techniques. It is found that BREM and LRSUP, at each grid point, have different optimal lengths of the training period. In general, the optimal training period for BREM is less than 30 days in most areas, while for LRSUP it is about 45 days.展开更多
A novel concept of nonlinear singular vector and nonlinear singular value is introduced, which is a natural generalization of the classical linear singular vector and linear singular value to the nonlinear category. T...A novel concept of nonlinear singular vector and nonlinear singular value is introduced, which is a natural generalization of the classical linear singular vector and linear singular value to the nonlinear category. The optimization problem related to the determination of nonlinear singular vectors and singular values is formulated. The general idea of this approach is demonstrated by a simple two-dimensional quasigeostrophic model in the atmospheric and oceanic sciences. The advantage and its applications of the new method to the predictability, ensemble forecast and finite-time nonlinear instability are discussed. This paper makes a necessary preparation for further theoretical and numerical investigations.展开更多
Despite significant successes achieved in knowledge discovery,traditional machine learning methods may fail to obtain satisfactory performances when dealing with complex data,such as imbalanced,high-dimensional,noisy ...Despite significant successes achieved in knowledge discovery,traditional machine learning methods may fail to obtain satisfactory performances when dealing with complex data,such as imbalanced,high-dimensional,noisy data,etc.The reason behind is that it is difficult for these methods to capture multiple characteristics and underlying structure of data.In this context,it becomes an important topic in the data mining field that how to effectively construct an efficient knowledge discovery and mining model.Ensemble learning,as one research hot spot,aims to integrate data fusion,data modeling,and data mining into a unified framework.Specifically,ensemble learning firstly extracts a set of features with a variety of transformations.Based on these learned features,multiple learning algorithms are utilized to produce weak predictive results.Finally,ensemble learning fuses the informative knowledge from the above results obtained to achieve knowledge discovery and better predictive performance via voting schemes in an adaptive way.In this paper,we review the research progress of the mainstream approaches of ensemble learning and classify them based on different characteristics.In addition,we present challenges and possible research directions for each mainstream approach of ensemble learning,and we also give an extra introduction for the combination of ensemble learning with other machine learning hot spots such as deep learning,reinforcement learning,etc.展开更多
High quality, agricultural nutrient distribution maps are necessary for precision management, but depend on initial soil sample analyses and interpolation techniques. To examine the methodologies for and explore the c...High quality, agricultural nutrient distribution maps are necessary for precision management, but depend on initial soil sample analyses and interpolation techniques. To examine the methodologies for and explore the capability of interpolating soil properties based on neural network ensemble residual kriging, a silage field at Hayes, Northern Ireland, UK, was selected for this study with all samples being split into independent training and validation data sets. The training data set, comprised of five soil properties: soil pH, soil available P, soil available K, soil available Mg and soil available S,was modeled for spatial variability using 1) neural network ensemble residual kriging, 2) neural network ensemble and 3) kriging with their accuracies being estimated by means of the validation data sets. Ordinary kriging of the residuals provided accurate local estimates, while final estimates were produced as a sum of the artificial neural network (ANN)ensemble estimates and the ordinary kriging estimates of the residuals. Compared to kriging and neural network ensemble,the neural network ensemble residual kriging achieved better or similar accuracy for predicting and estimating contour maps. Thus, the results demonstrated that ANN ensemble residual kriging was an efficient alternative to the conventional geo-statistical models that were usually used for interpolation of a data set in the soil science area.展开更多
Evolutionary computation has experienced a tremendous growth in the last decade in both theoretical analyses and industrial applications. Its scope has evolved beyond its original meaning of ＂biological evolution＂ t...Evolutionary computation has experienced a tremendous growth in the last decade in both theoretical analyses and industrial applications. Its scope has evolved beyond its original meaning of ＂biological evolution＂ toward a wide variety of nature inspired computational algorithms and techniques, including evolutionary, neural, ecological, social and economical computation, etc, in a unified framework. Many research topics in evolutionary computation nowadays are not necessarily ＂evolutionary＂. This paper provides an overview of some recent advances in evolutionary computation that have been made in CERCIA at the University of Birmingham, UK. It covers a wide range of topics in optimization, learning and design using evolutionary approaches and techniques, and theoretical results in the computational time complexity of evolutionary algorithms. Some issues related to future development of evolutionary computation are also discussed.展开更多
This article evaluates the performance of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models in simulating temperature and precipitation over China through comparisons with gridded observation data for the ...This article evaluates the performance of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models in simulating temperature and precipitation over China through comparisons with gridded observation data for the period of 1995–2014,with a focus on spatial patterns and interannual variability.The evaluations show that the CMIP6 models perform well in reproducing the climatological spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation,with better performance for temperature than for precipitation.Their interannual variability can also be reasonably captured by most models,however,poor performance is noted regarding the interannual variability of winter precipitation.Based on the comprehensive performance for the above two factors,the“highest-ranked”models are selected as an ensemble(BMME).The BMME outperforms the ensemble of all models(AMME)in simulating annual and winter temperature and precipitation,particularly for those subregions with complex terrain but it shows little improvement for summer temperature and precipitation.The AMME and BMME projections indicate annual increases for both temperature and precipitation across China by the end of the 21st century,with larger increases under the scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5/Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5(SSP585)than under scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2/Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(SSP245).The greatest increases of annual temperature are projected for higher latitudes and higher elevations and the largest percentage-based increases in annual precipitation are projected to occur in northern and western China,especially under SSP585.However,the BMME,which generally performs better in these regions,projects lower changes in annual temperature and larger variations in annual precipitation when compared to the AMME projections.展开更多
An initial conditions （ICs） perturbation method was developed with the aim to improve an operational regional ensemble prediction system （REPS）. Three issues were identified and investigated： （1） the impacts of...An initial conditions （ICs） perturbation method was developed with the aim to improve an operational regional ensemble prediction system （REPS）. Three issues were identified and investigated： （1） the impacts of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill of the REPS; （2） the scale characteristic of the IC perturbations of the REPS; and （3） whether the REPS＇s skill could be improved by adding large-scale information to the IC perturbations. Numerical experiments were conducted to reveal the impact of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill. The scales of IC perturbations from the REPS and an operational global ensemble prediction system （GEPS） were analyzed. A ＂multi-scale blending＂ （MSB） IC perturbation scheme was developed, and the main findings can be summarized as follows： The growth rates of the ensemble spread of the REPS are sensitive to the scale of the IC perturbations; the ensemble forecast skills can benefit from large-scale perturbations; the global ensemble IC perturbations exhibit more power at larger scales, while the regional ensemble IC perturbations contain more power at smaller scales; the MSB method can generate IC perturbations by combining the small-scale component from the REPS and the large-scale component from the GEPS; the energy norm growth of the MSB-generated perturbations can be appropriate at all forecast lead times; and the MSB-based REPS shows higher skill than the original system, as determined by ensemble forecast verification.展开更多
This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system （4DVAR） with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assim...This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system （4DVAR） with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assimilation. The coupled assimilation scheme （E4DVAR） benefits from using the state-dependent uncertainty provided by EnKF while taking advantage of 4DVAR in preventing filter divergence： the 4DVAR analysis produces posterior maximum likelihood solutions through minimization of a cost function about which the ensemble perturbations are transformed, and the resulting ensemble analysis can be propagated forward both for the next assimilation cycle and as a basis for ensemble forecasting. The feasibility and effectiveness of this coupled approach are demonstrated in an idealized model with simulated observations. It is found that the E4DVAR is capable of outperforming both 4DVAR and the EnKF under both perfect- and imperfect-model scenarios. The performance of the coupled scheme is also less sensitive to either the ensemble size or the assimilation window length than those for standard EnKF or 4DVAR implementations.展开更多
Rockburst prediction is of vital significance to the design and construction of underground hard rock mines.A rockburst database consisting of 102 case histories,i.e.,1998−2011 period data from 14 hard rock mines was ...Rockburst prediction is of vital significance to the design and construction of underground hard rock mines.A rockburst database consisting of 102 case histories,i.e.,1998−2011 period data from 14 hard rock mines was examined for rockburst prediction in burst-prone mines by three tree-based ensemble methods.The dataset was examined with six widely accepted indices which are:the maximum tangential stress around the excavation boundary(MTS),uniaxial compressive strength(UCS)and uniaxial tensile strength(UTS)of the intact rock,stress concentration factor(SCF),rock brittleness index(BI),and strain energy storage index(EEI).Two boosting(AdaBoost.M1,SAMME)and bagging algorithms with classification trees as baseline classifier on ability to learn rockburst were evaluated.The available dataset was randomly divided into training set(2/3 of whole datasets)and testing set(the remaining datasets).Repeated 10-fold cross validation(CV)was applied as the validation method for tuning the hyper-parameters.The margin analysis and the variable relative importance were employed to analyze some characteristics of the ensembles.According to 10-fold CV,the accuracy analysis of rockburst dataset demonstrated that the best prediction method for the potential of rockburst is bagging when compared to AdaBoost.M1,SAMME algorithms and empirical criteria methods.展开更多
Multi-model ensemble prediction is an effective approach for improving the prediction skill short-term climate prediction and evaluating related uncertainties. Based on a combination of localized operation outputs of ...Multi-model ensemble prediction is an effective approach for improving the prediction skill short-term climate prediction and evaluating related uncertainties. Based on a combination of localized operation outputs of Chinese climate models and imported forecast data of some international operational models, the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration has established the China multi-model ensemble prediction system version 1.0 (CMMEv1.0) for monthly-seasonal prediction of primary climate variability modes and climate elements. We verified the real-time forecasts of CMMEv1.0 for the 2018 flood season (June-August) starting from March 2018 and evaluated the 1991-2016 hindcasts of CMMEv1.0. The results show that CMMEv1.0 has a significantly high prediction skill for global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, especially for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical central-eastern Pacific. Additionally, its prediction skill for the North Atlantic SST triple (NAST) mode is high, but is relatively low for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode. Moreover, CMMEv1.0 has high skills in predicting the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in the June-July-August (JJA) season. The JJA air temperature in the CMMEv1.0 is predicted with a fairly high skill in most regions of China, while the JJA precipitation exhibits some skills only in northwestern and eastern China. For real-time forecasts in March-August 2018, CMMEv1.0 has accurately predicted the ENSO phase transition from cold to neutral in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and captures evolutions of the NAST and IOD indices in general. The system has also captured the main features of the summer WPSH and EASM indices in 2018, except that the predicted EASM is slightly weaker than the observed. Furthermore, CMMEv1.0 has also successfully predicted warmer air temperatures in northern China and captured the primary rainbelt over northern China, except that it predicted much more precipitation展开更多
The paper investigates the ability to retrieve the true soil moisture profile by assimilating near-surface soil moisture into a soil moisture model with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） assimilation scheme, includin...The paper investigates the ability to retrieve the true soil moisture profile by assimilating near-surface soil moisture into a soil moisture model with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） assimilation scheme, including the effect of ensemble size, update interval and nonlinearities in the profile retrieval, the required time for full retrieval of the soil moisture profiles, and the possible influence of the depth of the soil moisture observation. These questions are addressed by a desktop study using synthetic data. The ＂true＂ soil moisture profiles are generated from the soil moisture model under the boundary condition of 0.5 cm d^-1 evaporation. To test the assimilation schemes, the model is initialized with a poor initial guess of the soil moisture profile, and different ensemble sizes are tested showing that an ensemble of 40 members is enough to represent the covariance of the model forecasts. Also compared are the results with those from the direct insertion assimilation scheme, showing that the EnKF is superior to the direct insertion assimilation scheme, for hourly observations, with retrieval of the soil moisture profile being achieved in 16 h as compared to 12 days or more. For daily observations, the true soil moisture profile is achieved in about 15 days with the EnKF, but it is impossible to approximate the true moisture within 18 days by using direct insertion. It is also found that observation depth does not have a significant effect on profile retrieval time for the EnKF. The nonlinearities have some negative influence on the optimal estimates of soil moisture profile but not very seriously.展开更多
基金The National Nat-ural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), Grant Nos.90711003, 40375014the program of GYHY200706005, and the APCC Visiting Scientist Program jointly supportedthis work.
文摘The 21-yr ensemble predictions of model precipitation and circulation in the East Asian and western North Pacific （Asia-Pacific） summer monsoon region （0°-50°N, 100° 150°E） were evaluated in nine different AGCM, used in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center （APCC） multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction system. The analysis indicates that the precipitation anomaly patterns of model ensemble predictions are substantially different from the observed counterparts in this region, but the summer monsoon circulations are reasonably predicted. For example, all models can well produce the interannual variability of the western North Pacific monsoon index （WNPMI） defined by 850 hPa winds, but they failed to predict the relationship between WNPMI and precipitation anomalies. The interannual variability of the 500 hPa geopotential height （GPH） can be well predicted by the models in contrast to precipitation anomalies. On the basis of such model performances and the relationship between the interannual variations of 500 hPa GPH and precipitation anomalies, we developed a statistical scheme used to downscale the summer monsoon precipitation anomaly on the basis of EOF and singular value decomposition （SVD）. In this scheme, the three leading EOF modes of 500 hPa GPH anomaly fields predicted by the models are firstly corrected by the linear regression between the principal components in each model and observation, respectively. Then, the corrected model GPH is chosen as the predictor to downscale the precipitation anomaly field, which is assembled by the forecasted expansion coefficients of model 500 hPa GPH and the three leading SVD modes of observed precipitation anomaly corresponding to the prediction of model 500 hPa GPH during a 19-year training period. The cross-validated forecasts suggest that this downscaling scheme may have a potential to improve the forecast skill of the precipitation anomaly in the South China Sea, western North Pacific and the East Asia Pacific regions, wh
基金Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY(QX)2007-6-1)National Key Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2012CB955204)
文摘Based on the ensemble mean outputs of the ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF （European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts）, JMA （Japan Meteorological Agency）, NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction）, and UKMO （United Kingdom Met Office） in THORPEX （The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment） Interactive Grand Global Ensemble （TIGGE） datasets, for the Northern Hemisphere （10~ 87.5~N, 0~ 360~） from i June 2007 to 31 August 2007, this study carried out multimodel ensemble forecasts of surface temperature and 500-hPa geopotential height, temperature and winds up to 168 h by using the bias-removed ensemble mean （BREM）, the multiple linear regression based superensemble （LRSUP）, and the neural network based superensemble （NNSUP） techniques for the forecast period from 8 to 31 August 2007. A running training period is used for BREM and LRSUP ensemble forecast techniques. It is found that BREM and LRSUP, at each grid point, have different optimal lengths of the training period. In general, the optimal training period for BREM is less than 30 days in most areas, while for LRSUP it is about 45 days.
文摘A novel concept of nonlinear singular vector and nonlinear singular value is introduced, which is a natural generalization of the classical linear singular vector and linear singular value to the nonlinear category. The optimization problem related to the determination of nonlinear singular vectors and singular values is formulated. The general idea of this approach is demonstrated by a simple two-dimensional quasigeostrophic model in the atmospheric and oceanic sciences. The advantage and its applications of the new method to the predictability, ensemble forecast and finite-time nonlinear instability are discussed. This paper makes a necessary preparation for further theoretical and numerical investigations.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.61722205,61751205,61572199,61502174,61872148,and U 1611461)the grant from the key research and development program of Guangdong province of China(2018B010107002)+1 种基金the grants from Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province,China(2016A050503015,2017A030313355)the grant from the Guangzhou science and technology planning project(201704030051).
文摘Despite significant successes achieved in knowledge discovery,traditional machine learning methods may fail to obtain satisfactory performances when dealing with complex data,such as imbalanced,high-dimensional,noisy data,etc.The reason behind is that it is difficult for these methods to capture multiple characteristics and underlying structure of data.In this context,it becomes an important topic in the data mining field that how to effectively construct an efficient knowledge discovery and mining model.Ensemble learning,as one research hot spot,aims to integrate data fusion,data modeling,and data mining into a unified framework.Specifically,ensemble learning firstly extracts a set of features with a variety of transformations.Based on these learned features,multiple learning algorithms are utilized to produce weak predictive results.Finally,ensemble learning fuses the informative knowledge from the above results obtained to achieve knowledge discovery and better predictive performance via voting schemes in an adaptive way.In this paper,we review the research progress of the mainstream approaches of ensemble learning and classify them based on different characteristics.In addition,we present challenges and possible research directions for each mainstream approach of ensemble learning,and we also give an extra introduction for the combination of ensemble learning with other machine learning hot spots such as deep learning,reinforcement learning,etc.
基金Project supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40201021) Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 402016).
文摘High quality, agricultural nutrient distribution maps are necessary for precision management, but depend on initial soil sample analyses and interpolation techniques. To examine the methodologies for and explore the capability of interpolating soil properties based on neural network ensemble residual kriging, a silage field at Hayes, Northern Ireland, UK, was selected for this study with all samples being split into independent training and validation data sets. The training data set, comprised of five soil properties: soil pH, soil available P, soil available K, soil available Mg and soil available S,was modeled for spatial variability using 1) neural network ensemble residual kriging, 2) neural network ensemble and 3) kriging with their accuracies being estimated by means of the validation data sets. Ordinary kriging of the residuals provided accurate local estimates, while final estimates were produced as a sum of the artificial neural network (ANN)ensemble estimates and the ordinary kriging estimates of the residuals. Compared to kriging and neural network ensemble,the neural network ensemble residual kriging achieved better or similar accuracy for predicting and estimating contour maps. Thus, the results demonstrated that ANN ensemble residual kriging was an efficient alternative to the conventional geo-statistical models that were usually used for interpolation of a data set in the soil science area.
基金This work is partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No. 60428202）, and the Advantage West Midlands, UK.
文摘Evolutionary computation has experienced a tremendous growth in the last decade in both theoretical analyses and industrial applications. Its scope has evolved beyond its original meaning of ＂biological evolution＂ toward a wide variety of nature inspired computational algorithms and techniques, including evolutionary, neural, ecological, social and economical computation, etc, in a unified framework. Many research topics in evolutionary computation nowadays are not necessarily ＂evolutionary＂. This paper provides an overview of some recent advances in evolutionary computation that have been made in CERCIA at the University of Birmingham, UK. It covers a wide range of topics in optimization, learning and design using evolutionary approaches and techniques, and theoretical results in the computational time complexity of evolutionary algorithms. Some issues related to future development of evolutionary computation are also discussed.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0606301)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42025502,41991285,42088101).
文摘This article evaluates the performance of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models in simulating temperature and precipitation over China through comparisons with gridded observation data for the period of 1995–2014,with a focus on spatial patterns and interannual variability.The evaluations show that the CMIP6 models perform well in reproducing the climatological spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation,with better performance for temperature than for precipitation.Their interannual variability can also be reasonably captured by most models,however,poor performance is noted regarding the interannual variability of winter precipitation.Based on the comprehensive performance for the above two factors,the“highest-ranked”models are selected as an ensemble(BMME).The BMME outperforms the ensemble of all models(AMME)in simulating annual and winter temperature and precipitation,particularly for those subregions with complex terrain but it shows little improvement for summer temperature and precipitation.The AMME and BMME projections indicate annual increases for both temperature and precipitation across China by the end of the 21st century,with larger increases under the scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5/Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5(SSP585)than under scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2/Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(SSP245).The greatest increases of annual temperature are projected for higher latitudes and higher elevations and the largest percentage-based increases in annual precipitation are projected to occur in northern and western China,especially under SSP585.However,the BMME,which generally performs better in these regions,projects lower changes in annual temperature and larger variations in annual precipitation when compared to the AMME projections.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91437113)the Special Fund for Meteorological Scientific Research in the Public Interest (Grant Nos. GYHY201506007 and GYHY201006015)+1 种基金the National 973 Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB417204 and 2012CB955200)the Scientific Research & Innovation Projects for Academic Degree Students of Ordinary Universities of Jiangsu (Grant No. KYLX 0827)
文摘An initial conditions （ICs） perturbation method was developed with the aim to improve an operational regional ensemble prediction system （REPS）. Three issues were identified and investigated： （1） the impacts of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill of the REPS; （2） the scale characteristic of the IC perturbations of the REPS; and （3） whether the REPS＇s skill could be improved by adding large-scale information to the IC perturbations. Numerical experiments were conducted to reveal the impact of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill. The scales of IC perturbations from the REPS and an operational global ensemble prediction system （GEPS） were analyzed. A ＂multi-scale blending＂ （MSB） IC perturbation scheme was developed, and the main findings can be summarized as follows： The growth rates of the ensemble spread of the REPS are sensitive to the scale of the IC perturbations; the ensemble forecast skills can benefit from large-scale perturbations; the global ensemble IC perturbations exhibit more power at larger scales, while the regional ensemble IC perturbations contain more power at smaller scales; the MSB method can generate IC perturbations by combining the small-scale component from the REPS and the large-scale component from the GEPS; the energy norm growth of the MSB-generated perturbations can be appropriate at all forecast lead times; and the MSB-based REPS shows higher skill than the original system, as determined by ensemble forecast verification.
基金sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant No.ATM0205599)the U.S. Offce of Navy Research under Grant N000140410471Dr. James A. Hansen was partially supported by US Offce of Naval Research (Grant No. N00014-06-1-0500)
文摘This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system （4DVAR） with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assimilation. The coupled assimilation scheme （E4DVAR） benefits from using the state-dependent uncertainty provided by EnKF while taking advantage of 4DVAR in preventing filter divergence： the 4DVAR analysis produces posterior maximum likelihood solutions through minimization of a cost function about which the ensemble perturbations are transformed, and the resulting ensemble analysis can be propagated forward both for the next assimilation cycle and as a basis for ensemble forecasting. The feasibility and effectiveness of this coupled approach are demonstrated in an idealized model with simulated observations. It is found that the E4DVAR is capable of outperforming both 4DVAR and the EnKF under both perfect- and imperfect-model scenarios. The performance of the coupled scheme is also less sensitive to either the ensemble size or the assimilation window length than those for standard EnKF or 4DVAR implementations.
基金Projects(41807259,51604109)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2020CX040)supported by the Innovation-Driven Project of Central South University,ChinaProject(2018JJ3693)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China。
文摘Rockburst prediction is of vital significance to the design and construction of underground hard rock mines.A rockburst database consisting of 102 case histories,i.e.,1998−2011 period data from 14 hard rock mines was examined for rockburst prediction in burst-prone mines by three tree-based ensemble methods.The dataset was examined with six widely accepted indices which are:the maximum tangential stress around the excavation boundary(MTS),uniaxial compressive strength(UCS)and uniaxial tensile strength(UTS)of the intact rock,stress concentration factor(SCF),rock brittleness index(BI),and strain energy storage index(EEI).Two boosting(AdaBoost.M1,SAMME)and bagging algorithms with classification trees as baseline classifier on ability to learn rockburst were evaluated.The available dataset was randomly divided into training set(2/3 of whole datasets)and testing set(the remaining datasets).Repeated 10-fold cross validation(CV)was applied as the validation method for tuning the hyper-parameters.The margin analysis and the variable relative importance were employed to analyze some characteristics of the ensembles.According to 10-fold CV,the accuracy analysis of rockburst dataset demonstrated that the best prediction method for the potential of rockburst is bagging when compared to AdaBoost.M1,SAMME algorithms and empirical criteria methods.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1502306,2017YFC1502302,and 2018YFC-1506004)China Meteorological Administration Special Project for Developing Key Techniques for Operational Meteorological Forecast(YBGJXM201805)
文摘Multi-model ensemble prediction is an effective approach for improving the prediction skill short-term climate prediction and evaluating related uncertainties. Based on a combination of localized operation outputs of Chinese climate models and imported forecast data of some international operational models, the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration has established the China multi-model ensemble prediction system version 1.0 (CMMEv1.0) for monthly-seasonal prediction of primary climate variability modes and climate elements. We verified the real-time forecasts of CMMEv1.0 for the 2018 flood season (June-August) starting from March 2018 and evaluated the 1991-2016 hindcasts of CMMEv1.0. The results show that CMMEv1.0 has a significantly high prediction skill for global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, especially for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical central-eastern Pacific. Additionally, its prediction skill for the North Atlantic SST triple (NAST) mode is high, but is relatively low for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode. Moreover, CMMEv1.0 has high skills in predicting the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in the June-July-August (JJA) season. The JJA air temperature in the CMMEv1.0 is predicted with a fairly high skill in most regions of China, while the JJA precipitation exhibits some skills only in northwestern and eastern China. For real-time forecasts in March-August 2018, CMMEv1.0 has accurately predicted the ENSO phase transition from cold to neutral in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and captures evolutions of the NAST and IOD indices in general. The system has also captured the main features of the summer WPSH and EASM indices in 2018, except that the predicted EASM is slightly weaker than the observed. Furthermore, CMMEv1.0 has also successfully predicted warmer air temperatures in northern China and captured the primary rainbelt over northern China, except that it predicted much more precipitation
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.40475012,90202014, 2001CB309404).
文摘The paper investigates the ability to retrieve the true soil moisture profile by assimilating near-surface soil moisture into a soil moisture model with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） assimilation scheme, including the effect of ensemble size, update interval and nonlinearities in the profile retrieval, the required time for full retrieval of the soil moisture profiles, and the possible influence of the depth of the soil moisture observation. These questions are addressed by a desktop study using synthetic data. The ＂true＂ soil moisture profiles are generated from the soil moisture model under the boundary condition of 0.5 cm d^-1 evaporation. To test the assimilation schemes, the model is initialized with a poor initial guess of the soil moisture profile, and different ensemble sizes are tested showing that an ensemble of 40 members is enough to represent the covariance of the model forecasts. Also compared are the results with those from the direct insertion assimilation scheme, showing that the EnKF is superior to the direct insertion assimilation scheme, for hourly observations, with retrieval of the soil moisture profile being achieved in 16 h as compared to 12 days or more. For daily observations, the true soil moisture profile is achieved in about 15 days with the EnKF, but it is impossible to approximate the true moisture within 18 days by using direct insertion. It is also found that observation depth does not have a significant effect on profile retrieval time for the EnKF. The nonlinearities have some negative influence on the optimal estimates of soil moisture profile but not very seriously.
