基于ERA5的逐小时100m风场数据,利用时间序列K-means聚类方法,将中国沿海冬季风能年际变化划分为四个区域,分别为北中国海(NorthChina Sea,NCS)、东海(East China Sea,ECS)、南海北部(Northern South China Sea,NSCS)及南海南部(Souther...基于ERA5的逐小时100m风场数据,利用时间序列K-means聚类方法,将中国沿海冬季风能年际变化划分为四个区域,分别为北中国海(NorthChina Sea,NCS)、东海(East China Sea,ECS)、南海北部(Northern South China Sea,NSCS)及南海南部(SouthernSouthChinaSea,SSCS)。四个区域风能的年际变化受不同气候模态的影响,其中NCS风能的年际变化与北极涛动(ArcticOscillation,AO)有关;ECS风能的年际变化与中部型ENSO及西伯利亚高压有关;SSCS和NSCS的年际变化则和东部型ENSO及大陆高压的南北位置存在联系。鉴于影响各区域风能年际变化的气候模态具有较高的可预测性,进一步评估了多个气候模式对中国沿海风能年际变化的预测技巧。结果表明,气候模式对南中国海的风能年际变化预测技巧更高,这与气候模式对ENSO的高预测技巧有关。气候模式对北方海域风能年际变化的预测技巧较差,这和气候模式不能较好地预测AO和西伯利亚高压有关。展开更多
ENSO, particularly the occurrence of ENSO is still an important research object in climatic variation. Using the ECMWF data, the relationship between ENSO and the activities of low-frequency waves in the tropical atmo...ENSO, particularly the occurrence of ENSO is still an important research object in climatic variation. Using the ECMWF data, the relationship between ENSO and the activities of low-frequency waves in the tropical atmosphere is analyzed in this paper. It is shown that the occurrence of ENSO is closely related to the intraseasonal oscillation and the quasi-stationary waves (the period >90 days) in the tropical atmosphere. Associated with the occurrence of El Nino event, the kinetic energy of low-frequency waves has obvious variation: the kinetic energy of atmospheric intraseasonal (30-60 days) oscillation (ISO) decreases abruptly and the kinetic energy of quasi-stationary waves increases abruptly. Moreover, the ISO and quasi-stationary waves propagate eastward clearly corresponding to El Nino; but they clearly propagate westward in La Nina cases.展开更多
本文研究了一类太阳强迫的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)充电振子数理模型,通过数学变换将此ENSO振子方程组变换为有周期强迫项的van der Pol-Duffing方程,利用谐波平衡法定性分析得到此ENSO系统发生Hopf分岔的条件并做简单数值模拟,结果发...本文研究了一类太阳强迫的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)充电振子数理模型,通过数学变换将此ENSO振子方程组变换为有周期强迫项的van der Pol-Duffing方程,利用谐波平衡法定性分析得到此ENSO系统发生Hopf分岔的条件并做简单数值模拟,结果发现随着强迫作用增大,11年周期太阳循环强迫的ENSO系统经历准周期、倍频锁相到混沌的过程.展开更多
文摘基于ERA5的逐小时100m风场数据,利用时间序列K-means聚类方法,将中国沿海冬季风能年际变化划分为四个区域,分别为北中国海(NorthChina Sea,NCS)、东海(East China Sea,ECS)、南海北部(Northern South China Sea,NSCS)及南海南部(SouthernSouthChinaSea,SSCS)。四个区域风能的年际变化受不同气候模态的影响,其中NCS风能的年际变化与北极涛动(ArcticOscillation,AO)有关;ECS风能的年际变化与中部型ENSO及西伯利亚高压有关;SSCS和NSCS的年际变化则和东部型ENSO及大陆高压的南北位置存在联系。鉴于影响各区域风能年际变化的气候模态具有较高的可预测性,进一步评估了多个气候模式对中国沿海风能年际变化的预测技巧。结果表明,气候模式对南中国海的风能年际变化预测技巧更高,这与气候模式对ENSO的高预测技巧有关。气候模式对北方海域风能年际变化的预测技巧较差,这和气候模式不能较好地预测AO和西伯利亚高压有关。
文摘ENSO, particularly the occurrence of ENSO is still an important research object in climatic variation. Using the ECMWF data, the relationship between ENSO and the activities of low-frequency waves in the tropical atmosphere is analyzed in this paper. It is shown that the occurrence of ENSO is closely related to the intraseasonal oscillation and the quasi-stationary waves (the period >90 days) in the tropical atmosphere. Associated with the occurrence of El Nino event, the kinetic energy of low-frequency waves has obvious variation: the kinetic energy of atmospheric intraseasonal (30-60 days) oscillation (ISO) decreases abruptly and the kinetic energy of quasi-stationary waves increases abruptly. Moreover, the ISO and quasi-stationary waves propagate eastward clearly corresponding to El Nino; but they clearly propagate westward in La Nina cases.
文摘本文研究了一类太阳强迫的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)充电振子数理模型,通过数学变换将此ENSO振子方程组变换为有周期强迫项的van der Pol-Duffing方程,利用谐波平衡法定性分析得到此ENSO系统发生Hopf分岔的条件并做简单数值模拟,结果发现随着强迫作用增大,11年周期太阳循环强迫的ENSO系统经历准周期、倍频锁相到混沌的过程.
