Cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors, moreover the re-search on evaluating cities ability reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi-subject, such as earthqua...Cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors, moreover the re-search on evaluating cities ability reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi-subject, such as earthquake sci-ence, social science, economical science and so on. In this paper, firstly, the conception of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented, and the ability could be evaluated with three basic elements the possible seis-mic casualty and economic loss during the future earthquakes that are likely to occur in the city and its surround-ings and time required for recovery after earthquake; based upon these three basic elements, a framework, which consists of six main components, for evaluating citys ability reducing earthquake disasters is proposed; then the statistical relations between the index system and the ratio of seismic casualty, the ratio of economic loss and re-covery time are gained utilizing the cities prediction results of earthquake disasters which were made during the ninth five-year plan; at last, the method defining the comprehensive index of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented. Thus the relatively comprehensive theory frame is set up. The frame can evaluate cities ability reducing earthquake disasters absolutely and quantitatively and consequently instruct the decision-making on reducing cities earthquake disasters loss.展开更多
This paper describes the methodology of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and demonstratethat it is a powerful method of time series analysis and forecasting,particulary for economic time series.The authors consider th...This paper describes the methodology of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and demonstratethat it is a powerful method of time series analysis and forecasting,particulary for economic time series.The authors consider the application of SSA to the analysis and forecasting of the Iranian nationalaccounts data as provided by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran.展开更多
文摘Cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors, moreover the re-search on evaluating cities ability reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi-subject, such as earthquake sci-ence, social science, economical science and so on. In this paper, firstly, the conception of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented, and the ability could be evaluated with three basic elements the possible seis-mic casualty and economic loss during the future earthquakes that are likely to occur in the city and its surround-ings and time required for recovery after earthquake; based upon these three basic elements, a framework, which consists of six main components, for evaluating citys ability reducing earthquake disasters is proposed; then the statistical relations between the index system and the ratio of seismic casualty, the ratio of economic loss and re-covery time are gained utilizing the cities prediction results of earthquake disasters which were made during the ninth five-year plan; at last, the method defining the comprehensive index of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented. Thus the relatively comprehensive theory frame is set up. The frame can evaluate cities ability reducing earthquake disasters absolutely and quantitatively and consequently instruct the decision-making on reducing cities earthquake disasters loss.
基金supported by a grant (No. 88/121230) from Institute for Trade StudiesResearch (ITSR), Tehran, Iran
文摘This paper describes the methodology of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and demonstratethat it is a powerful method of time series analysis and forecasting,particulary for economic time series.The authors consider the application of SSA to the analysis and forecasting of the Iranian nationalaccounts data as provided by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
