摘要
近些年关于金融发展与经济增长之间关系的论证较多,并且存在着较大的分歧。本文倾向于区域金融发展对经济增长具有积极作用的观点,认为二者关系中存在明显的"门槛效应"和"时滞效应",并用某一区域经济金融20年的发展数据来实证了这一问题。在此基础上,本文进一步分析了二者间的时滞问题所带来的负面效应,运用规范的柯布-道格拉斯函数来验证经济发展速度与资金投入数量的关系,初步判断区域经济发展中资金紧缺可能只是资金供需结构上的失衡,而并不全是资金总量上的不足,进而提出了利用"预期调控"来削减负面效应的观点。
There are many arguments for the relationship between financial development and economic growth. The author thinks that local financial development has positive effect on the economic growth, and there is an obvious ＂doorsill effect＂ and ＂time-lag effect＂ between financial development and economic growth. Based on an empirical study of local economic and financial data, the author further analyzes the negative effect of time-lag effect and tests the correlation between capital input and economic growth speed by using Cobb-Douglas functions. Finally, the author puts forward a view that ＂expectations of control＂ may have a role to minify the negative effect.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第2期198-206,共9页
Journal of Financial Research
关键词
金融发展
经济增长
时滞
回归
预期调控
financial development, economic growth, time lag, regression, expectations of control
