针对2003年7月5日江淮流域一次暴雨过程，以NCEP／NCAR1°×1°再分析资料为背景场，采用WRF（weather research and forecasting）模式及其三维变分同化系统，对雷达径向风和E-VAP（extended velocity azimuth processing...针对2003年7月5日江淮流域一次暴雨过程，以NCEP／NCAR1°×1°再分析资料为背景场，采用WRF（weather research and forecasting）模式及其三维变分同化系统，对雷达径向风和E-VAP（extended velocity azimuth processing）反演的水平风场进行了直接同化和反演同化试验，结果表明：直接同化雷达径向风资料后，增加了初始风场的中小尺度信息，改善了垂直速度条件，且在风场作用下水汽分布得到改善；反演同化资料虽然能增加初始场的中小尺度信息，但效果不如直接同化明显；无论直接同化还是反演同化都能改善降水预报，但直接同化好于反演同化，且间隔5～6min比30min的直接同化模拟效果好。展开更多
In order to solve the difficult problem of typhoon track prediction due to the sparsity of conventional data over the tropical ocean, in this paper, the No. 0205 typhoon Rammasun of 4-6 July 2002 is studied and an exp...In order to solve the difficult problem of typhoon track prediction due to the sparsity of conventional data over the tropical ocean, in this paper, the No. 0205 typhoon Rammasun of 4-6 July 2002 is studied and an experiment of the typhoon track prediction is made with the direct use of the Advanced TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) microwave radiance data in three-dimensional variational data assimilation. The prediction result shows that the experiment with the ATOVS microwave radiance data can not only successfully predict the observed fact that typhoon Rammasun moves northward and turns right, but can also simulate the action of the fast movement of the typhoon, which cannot be simulated with only conventional radiosonde data. The skill of the typhoon track prediction with the ATOVS microwave radiance data is much better than that without the ATOVS data. The typhoon track prediction of the former scheme is consistent in time and in location with the observation. The direct assimilation of ATOVS microwave radiance data is an available way to solve the problem of the sparse observation data over the tropical ocean, and has great potential in being applied to typhoon track prediction.展开更多
Experiments are performed in this paper to understand the influence of satellite radiance data on the initial field of a numerical prediction system and rainfall prediction. First, Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit A （...Experiments are performed in this paper to understand the influence of satellite radiance data on the initial field of a numerical prediction system and rainfall prediction. First, Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit A （AMSU-A） and Unit B （AMSU-B） radiance data are directly used by three-dimensional variational data assimilation to improve the background field of the numerical model. Then, the detailed effect of the radiance data on the background field is analyzed. Secondly, the background field, which is formed by application of Advanced Television and Infrared Observation Satellite Operational Vertical Sounder （ATOVS） microwave radiance assimilation, is employed to simulate some heavy rainfall cases. The experiment results show that the assimilation of AMSU-A （B） microwave radiance data has a certain impact on the geopotential height, temperature, relative humidity and flow fields. And the impacts on the background field are mostly similar in the different months in summer. The heavy rainfall experiments reveal that the application of AMSU-A （B） microwave radiance data can improve the rainfall prediction significantly. In particular, the AMSU-A radiance data can significantly enhance the prediction of rainfall above 10 mm within 48 h, and the AMSU-B radiance data can improve the prediction of rainfall above 50 mm within 24 h. The present study confirms that the direct assimilation of satellite radiance data is an effective way to improve the prediction of heavy rainfall in the summer in China.展开更多
为了实现西太平洋及东亚区域FY-2F可见红外自旋扫描辐射计(VISSR)资料的直接同化,本文利用飓风天气预报模式(WRF For Hurricane,HWRF)和快速辐射传输模式(Community Radiative Transfer Model,CRTM)对FY-2F的亮温资料进行了模拟。在有...为了实现西太平洋及东亚区域FY-2F可见红外自旋扫描辐射计(VISSR)资料的直接同化,本文利用飓风天气预报模式(WRF For Hurricane,HWRF)和快速辐射传输模式(Community Radiative Transfer Model,CRTM)对FY-2F的亮温资料进行了模拟。在有云情况下,中高纬度锋面云系模拟的相对较好,而低纬热带云团模拟偏差较大。对于晴空条件下模拟的红外1、2、4通道(IR1、2、4)亮温,受陆地下垫面发射率不均匀的影响模拟偏差较大,且辐射传输模式平均而言低估了地表发射率。海洋下垫面的资料模拟情况要明显好于陆地。IR4通道在白天受太阳短波影响观测亮温偏高。去除受云污染的资料仅保留晴空观测资料,通过格点统计插值(Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation,GSI)质量控制和偏差订正,IR2通道平均偏差减小约50%,IR3通道平均偏差从3.7 K减小到0.34 K。而IR1通道质量较好,偏差订正前后几乎没有变化。展开更多
A series of test simulations are performed to evaluate the impact of satellite-derived meteorological data on numerical typhoon track prediction. Geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS-5) and NOAA's TIROS ope...A series of test simulations are performed to evaluate the impact of satellite-derived meteorological data on numerical typhoon track prediction. Geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS-5) and NOAA's TIROS operational vertical sounder (TOVS) observations are used in the experiments. A two-dimensional variation assimilation scheme is developed to assimilate the satellite data directly into the Penn State-NCAR nonhydrostatic meteorological model (MM5). Three-dimensional objective analyses fields based on T213 results and routine observations are employed as the background fields of the initialization. The comparisons of the simulated typhoon tracks are also carried out, which correspond respectively to the initialization scheme with two-dimensional variation (2D - Var), three-dimensional observational nudging and direct assimilation of satellite data. It is found that, comparing with the experiments without satellite data assimilation, the first two assimilation schemes lead to significant improvements on typhoon track prediction. Track errors reduce by 18 % at 12 h for 2D - Var and from about 16 % at 24 h to about 35 % at 48 h for observational nudging. The simulated results based on assimilating different kinds of satellite data are also compared.展开更多
本研究利用WRF模式及其三维变分同化系统实现了对NOAA-16 AMSU-A微波资料的直接同化,针对2010年6月19日江西地区的一次强降水过程开展模拟与同化试验,并利用中国区域土壤湿度同化系统(CLSMDAS—China Land Soil Moisture Data Assimilat...本研究利用WRF模式及其三维变分同化系统实现了对NOAA-16 AMSU-A微波资料的直接同化,针对2010年6月19日江西地区的一次强降水过程开展模拟与同化试验,并利用中国区域土壤湿度同化系统(CLSMDAS—China Land Soil Moisture Data Assimilation System)输出的土壤湿度值替换NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)资料中的土壤湿度,研究土壤湿度初值对辐射率资料直接同化中观测场与背景场偏差调整的影响。结果表明:采用CLSMDAS输出土壤湿度初值条件下模拟的亮温值与实际观测值更为接近,经过质量控制和偏差订正后更多的观测资料能够进入到同化系统中,说明改进的土壤湿度初值条件下观测算子的计算值得到正的调整,对低层地表通道的改进效果明显,尤其以50.3 GHz的窗区通道3的结果最为理想;针对此次强降水过程中24 h累积降水分布的模拟结果,CLSMDAS输出土壤湿度初值条件下同化AMSU-A资料,能够较为准确的把握整个雨带的走向、大雨以上级别降水的落区范围、降水中心落区及强度等。说明准确的土壤湿度初值能够改进卫星辐射率资料的同化结果,进而提高数值模式的模拟预报能力。展开更多
Studies were carried out for two years to evaluate the effect of methods of sowing and weed control practices on the productivity of transplanted and direct wet-seeded rice in Dera Ismail Khan, NWFP, Pakistan. The exp...Studies were carried out for two years to evaluate the effect of methods of sowing and weed control practices on the productivity of transplanted and direct wet-seeded rice in Dera Ismail Khan, NWFP, Pakistan. The experiment was laid out in a randomized complete block design with a split plot arrangement. The planting techniques viz. transplanting and direct seeding were maintained in main plots while weed control practices included the use of granular herbicide Sunstar 15WG （ethoxy sulfuron）, Machete 60EC （butachlor）, conventional hand weeding, and the weedy check （control） were assigned to the sub-plots. Data were recorded on weed parameters like weed density and dry weed biomass 60 and 90 days after sowing （DAS）; agronomic parameters including plant population, number of panicles and paddy yield and physiological parameters like leaf area index and net assimilation rate 45 and 90 DAS. The planting methods and weed management significantly influenced most of the parameters studied. The data revealed that the paddy yield and its components were significantly higher in the transplanted method than that in direct-seeded method, while the weed density and biomass were lower in the transplanted plots than the direct-seeded plots. Among weed management tools, the maximum paddy yield was obtained in hand weeding, closely followed by herbicide application Machete 60EC during both cropping seasons.展开更多
文摘针对2003年7月5日江淮流域一次暴雨过程，以NCEP／NCAR1°×1°再分析资料为背景场，采用WRF（weather research and forecasting）模式及其三维变分同化系统，对雷达径向风和E-VAP（extended velocity azimuth processing）反演的水平风场进行了直接同化和反演同化试验，结果表明：直接同化雷达径向风资料后，增加了初始风场的中小尺度信息，改善了垂直速度条件，且在风场作用下水汽分布得到改善；反演同化资料虽然能增加初始场的中小尺度信息，但效果不如直接同化明显；无论直接同化还是反演同化都能改善降水预报，但直接同化好于反演同化，且间隔5～6min比30min的直接同化模拟效果好。
文摘In order to solve the difficult problem of typhoon track prediction due to the sparsity of conventional data over the tropical ocean, in this paper, the No. 0205 typhoon Rammasun of 4-6 July 2002 is studied and an experiment of the typhoon track prediction is made with the direct use of the Advanced TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) microwave radiance data in three-dimensional variational data assimilation. The prediction result shows that the experiment with the ATOVS microwave radiance data can not only successfully predict the observed fact that typhoon Rammasun moves northward and turns right, but can also simulate the action of the fast movement of the typhoon, which cannot be simulated with only conventional radiosonde data. The skill of the typhoon track prediction with the ATOVS microwave radiance data is much better than that without the ATOVS data. The typhoon track prediction of the former scheme is consistent in time and in location with the observation. The direct assimilation of ATOVS microwave radiance data is an available way to solve the problem of the sparse observation data over the tropical ocean, and has great potential in being applied to typhoon track prediction.
文摘Experiments are performed in this paper to understand the influence of satellite radiance data on the initial field of a numerical prediction system and rainfall prediction. First, Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit A （AMSU-A） and Unit B （AMSU-B） radiance data are directly used by three-dimensional variational data assimilation to improve the background field of the numerical model. Then, the detailed effect of the radiance data on the background field is analyzed. Secondly, the background field, which is formed by application of Advanced Television and Infrared Observation Satellite Operational Vertical Sounder （ATOVS） microwave radiance assimilation, is employed to simulate some heavy rainfall cases. The experiment results show that the assimilation of AMSU-A （B） microwave radiance data has a certain impact on the geopotential height, temperature, relative humidity and flow fields. And the impacts on the background field are mostly similar in the different months in summer. The heavy rainfall experiments reveal that the application of AMSU-A （B） microwave radiance data can improve the rainfall prediction significantly. In particular, the AMSU-A radiance data can significantly enhance the prediction of rainfall above 10 mm within 48 h, and the AMSU-B radiance data can improve the prediction of rainfall above 50 mm within 24 h. The present study confirms that the direct assimilation of satellite radiance data is an effective way to improve the prediction of heavy rainfall in the summer in China.
文摘A series of test simulations are performed to evaluate the impact of satellite-derived meteorological data on numerical typhoon track prediction. Geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS-5) and NOAA's TIROS operational vertical sounder (TOVS) observations are used in the experiments. A two-dimensional variation assimilation scheme is developed to assimilate the satellite data directly into the Penn State-NCAR nonhydrostatic meteorological model (MM5). Three-dimensional objective analyses fields based on T213 results and routine observations are employed as the background fields of the initialization. The comparisons of the simulated typhoon tracks are also carried out, which correspond respectively to the initialization scheme with two-dimensional variation (2D - Var), three-dimensional observational nudging and direct assimilation of satellite data. It is found that, comparing with the experiments without satellite data assimilation, the first two assimilation schemes lead to significant improvements on typhoon track prediction. Track errors reduce by 18 % at 12 h for 2D - Var and from about 16 % at 24 h to about 35 % at 48 h for observational nudging. The simulated results based on assimilating different kinds of satellite data are also compared.
文摘本研究利用WRF模式及其三维变分同化系统实现了对NOAA-16 AMSU-A微波资料的直接同化,针对2010年6月19日江西地区的一次强降水过程开展模拟与同化试验,并利用中国区域土壤湿度同化系统(CLSMDAS—China Land Soil Moisture Data Assimilation System)输出的土壤湿度值替换NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)资料中的土壤湿度,研究土壤湿度初值对辐射率资料直接同化中观测场与背景场偏差调整的影响。结果表明:采用CLSMDAS输出土壤湿度初值条件下模拟的亮温值与实际观测值更为接近,经过质量控制和偏差订正后更多的观测资料能够进入到同化系统中,说明改进的土壤湿度初值条件下观测算子的计算值得到正的调整,对低层地表通道的改进效果明显,尤其以50.3 GHz的窗区通道3的结果最为理想;针对此次强降水过程中24 h累积降水分布的模拟结果,CLSMDAS输出土壤湿度初值条件下同化AMSU-A资料,能够较为准确的把握整个雨带的走向、大雨以上级别降水的落区范围、降水中心落区及强度等。说明准确的土壤湿度初值能够改进卫星辐射率资料的同化结果,进而提高数值模式的模拟预报能力。
文摘Studies were carried out for two years to evaluate the effect of methods of sowing and weed control practices on the productivity of transplanted and direct wet-seeded rice in Dera Ismail Khan, NWFP, Pakistan. The experiment was laid out in a randomized complete block design with a split plot arrangement. The planting techniques viz. transplanting and direct seeding were maintained in main plots while weed control practices included the use of granular herbicide Sunstar 15WG （ethoxy sulfuron）, Machete 60EC （butachlor）, conventional hand weeding, and the weedy check （control） were assigned to the sub-plots. Data were recorded on weed parameters like weed density and dry weed biomass 60 and 90 days after sowing （DAS）; agronomic parameters including plant population, number of panicles and paddy yield and physiological parameters like leaf area index and net assimilation rate 45 and 90 DAS. The planting methods and weed management significantly influenced most of the parameters studied. The data revealed that the paddy yield and its components were significantly higher in the transplanted method than that in direct-seeded method, while the weed density and biomass were lower in the transplanted plots than the direct-seeded plots. Among weed management tools, the maximum paddy yield was obtained in hand weeding, closely followed by herbicide application Machete 60EC during both cropping seasons.
