针对目前状态检修决策中存在的决策模型目标单一且适用性受限,没有考虑到决策者的实际检修预期和检修意愿,个体决策而非群决策等问题,提出一种基于D-S证据理论的状态检修多目标群决策模型。首先建立了状态检修决策框架和以效用、成本为...针对目前状态检修决策中存在的决策模型目标单一且适用性受限,没有考虑到决策者的实际检修预期和检修意愿,个体决策而非群决策等问题,提出一种基于D-S证据理论的状态检修多目标群决策模型。首先建立了状态检修决策框架和以效用、成本为一级指标的检修决策指标体系,并给出了指标量化方法;然后将决策指标作为证据源,将在检修导则和基于当前状态的剩余寿命预测指导下形成的检修方案作为识别框架,将各方案下标准化的指标值、指标综合权重和专家权重归一化到D-S证据理论的基本概率分配(basic probability assignment,BPA)值中,实现对检修方式和检修时段的多目标群决策。最后,算例验证了该模型能够有效地实现状态检修多目标群决策,并能根据决策者意愿进行调控,决策结果使所有指标达到综合最优。展开更多
Resources and environment carrying capacity is central to not only regional sustainable development but also major function-oriented zoning. This paper presents an evaluation index system for resources and environment...Resources and environment carrying capacity is central to not only regional sustainable development but also major function-oriented zoning. This paper presents an evaluation index system for resources and environment carrying capacity based on four aspects of carrying capacity(i.e., water resources, land resources, the environment, and ecosystems) by using a square deviation decision-making method, and on the basis of above effort evaluates the resources and environment carrying capacity across 31 provincial regions in China(not including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions of China). In addition, this paper evaluates the current state of socio-economic development, and analyzes the spatial distribution of resources and environment pressure. The results showed that distinct spatial differences in resources and environment carrying capacity and pressure across provincial regions. Resources and environment pressure is affected by both comprehensive resources and environment carrying capacity and socio-economic development. Regions subjected to lower degrees of resources and environment pressure will be restricted by resources and environmental problems through future courses of development owing to excessively low carrying capacities. By contrast, regions with higher comprehensive resources and environment carrying capacity will be subjected to excessively high levels of resources and environment pressure because of rapid socio-economic development. Both of resources and environment carrying capacity and pressure must therefore be considered in the allocation of country-binding targets to provincial regions.展开更多
电网规划投资决策不仅要考虑项目投入产出效益,而且要考虑地区投资环境和企业管理水平对项目投资的约束。为统筹协调电网规划投资决策中主观经验与客观数据、定性指标与定量指标、项目属性与环境属性,提出一种基于改进消去与选择转换法(...电网规划投资决策不仅要考虑项目投入产出效益,而且要考虑地区投资环境和企业管理水平对项目投资的约束。为统筹协调电网规划投资决策中主观经验与客观数据、定性指标与定量指标、项目属性与环境属性,提出一种基于改进消去与选择转换法(elimination et choice translating reality,ELECTRE)的电网规划投资多准则决策方法。首先,提出电网规划投资中效益、效率与效能多准则融合决策理念;其次,构建电网规划投资决策指标体系;再次,运用归档赋值法和偏好策略表对ELECTRE法进行改进,构建基于改进ELECTRE法的电网规划投资决策模型,提出电网规划投资决策流程;最后,通过案例验证方法的可行性。研究结果表明,该方法提升了投资效益、效率与效能,可为有关部门开展电网规划投资决策提供参考。展开更多
文摘针对目前状态检修决策中存在的决策模型目标单一且适用性受限,没有考虑到决策者的实际检修预期和检修意愿,个体决策而非群决策等问题,提出一种基于D-S证据理论的状态检修多目标群决策模型。首先建立了状态检修决策框架和以效用、成本为一级指标的检修决策指标体系,并给出了指标量化方法;然后将决策指标作为证据源,将在检修导则和基于当前状态的剩余寿命预测指导下形成的检修方案作为识别框架,将各方案下标准化的指标值、指标综合权重和专家权重归一化到D-S证据理论的基本概率分配(basic probability assignment,BPA)值中,实现对检修方式和检修时段的多目标群决策。最后,算例验证了该模型能够有效地实现状态检修多目标群决策,并能根据决策者意愿进行调控,决策结果使所有指标达到综合最优。
基金Under the auspices of Science and Technology Service Network Initiative of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.KEJ-EW-ZY-004)
文摘Resources and environment carrying capacity is central to not only regional sustainable development but also major function-oriented zoning. This paper presents an evaluation index system for resources and environment carrying capacity based on four aspects of carrying capacity(i.e., water resources, land resources, the environment, and ecosystems) by using a square deviation decision-making method, and on the basis of above effort evaluates the resources and environment carrying capacity across 31 provincial regions in China(not including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions of China). In addition, this paper evaluates the current state of socio-economic development, and analyzes the spatial distribution of resources and environment pressure. The results showed that distinct spatial differences in resources and environment carrying capacity and pressure across provincial regions. Resources and environment pressure is affected by both comprehensive resources and environment carrying capacity and socio-economic development. Regions subjected to lower degrees of resources and environment pressure will be restricted by resources and environmental problems through future courses of development owing to excessively low carrying capacities. By contrast, regions with higher comprehensive resources and environment carrying capacity will be subjected to excessively high levels of resources and environment pressure because of rapid socio-economic development. Both of resources and environment carrying capacity and pressure must therefore be considered in the allocation of country-binding targets to provincial regions.
文摘电网规划投资决策不仅要考虑项目投入产出效益,而且要考虑地区投资环境和企业管理水平对项目投资的约束。为统筹协调电网规划投资决策中主观经验与客观数据、定性指标与定量指标、项目属性与环境属性,提出一种基于改进消去与选择转换法(elimination et choice translating reality,ELECTRE)的电网规划投资多准则决策方法。首先,提出电网规划投资中效益、效率与效能多准则融合决策理念;其次,构建电网规划投资决策指标体系;再次,运用归档赋值法和偏好策略表对ELECTRE法进行改进,构建基于改进ELECTRE法的电网规划投资决策模型,提出电网规划投资决策流程;最后,通过案例验证方法的可行性。研究结果表明,该方法提升了投资效益、效率与效能,可为有关部门开展电网规划投资决策提供参考。
