As part of the global effort to plant billion trees,an afforestation project is launched in Pakistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(KP)province to conserve existing forests and to increase area under forest cover.The present s...As part of the global effort to plant billion trees,an afforestation project is launched in Pakistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(KP)province to conserve existing forests and to increase area under forest cover.The present study is designed to build a Systems'model by incorporating major activities of the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project(BTTAP)with special focus on afforestation activities to estimate the growth in forest area of KP.Availability of complete dataset was a challenge.To fix the model,the raw data taken from the project office has been utilized.Planning Commission Form 1-Phase I&II helped us with additional information.We relied on the data available for one and half period of the project as rest of the data is subject to the completion of the project.Our results show that the project target to enhance area under forest differs from the target to afforest area under the project.The system dynamics'model projection shows that the forest area of KP would be 23.59 million hectares at the end of the BTTA project,thus having an increase of 3.29%instead of 2%that has been initially proposed.However,the results show that the progress to meet the target in some afforestation classes is slow as compared to other categories.Farm forestry,plantation on communal lands and owners'plantation need special focus of the authority.Deforestation would affect 0.02 million hectares area of the project.The model under study may be used as a reference model that can be replicated to other areas where billion tree campaigns are going on.展开更多
Background In the climate change context,nature-based solution(NBS)is considered one of the effective tools to increase the resilience of socio-ecological system.The concept coincides with the government’s attempts o...Background In the climate change context,nature-based solution(NBS)is considered one of the effective tools to increase the resilience of socio-ecological system.The concept coincides with the government’s attempts of afforestation and reforestation programs that have been going on for 60 years in Bangladesh.This study,therefore,envisaged understanding how NBS(mangrove afforestation and reforestation)works to promote climate change resilience through the synthetization of remote sensing-based big earth data,statistical tools,and models.The study took the entire coast of Bangladesh except for Sundarbans Reserve Forest and rolled back to 1962 to work on 60 years’time series data.Declassified CORONA satellite imagery along with Landsat satellite imagery was used,which is the first-ever attempt in the remote sensing-based ecosystem work in Bangladesh.Results The study’s main innovation is to spatially establish the effectiveness of the NBS.The study critically assessed and estimated stable lands and their socio-economic benefits as part of the effectiveness of the NBS.As part of the NBS-derived benefits in the context of climate change,it estimated the sequestrated carbon in mangrove forests.A significant positive relationship was observed between the increase of mangroves and stable lands.Near about 448,011 ha of agricultural land was stabilized due to the NBS intervention whose economic value is 18,837 million USD.In addition,29,755.71 kt of carbon have been sequestrated due to NBS program.Conclusions The concept of NBS is still in the development stage and very little or no work has been done so far in measuring and labeling the effectiveness of the NBS.Therefore,our study can innovatively contribute to the scientific community to show the effectiveness of the NBS in three domains(social,economic and ecological)in the changing climatic scenario.展开更多
文摘As part of the global effort to plant billion trees,an afforestation project is launched in Pakistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(KP)province to conserve existing forests and to increase area under forest cover.The present study is designed to build a Systems'model by incorporating major activities of the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project(BTTAP)with special focus on afforestation activities to estimate the growth in forest area of KP.Availability of complete dataset was a challenge.To fix the model,the raw data taken from the project office has been utilized.Planning Commission Form 1-Phase I&II helped us with additional information.We relied on the data available for one and half period of the project as rest of the data is subject to the completion of the project.Our results show that the project target to enhance area under forest differs from the target to afforest area under the project.The system dynamics'model projection shows that the forest area of KP would be 23.59 million hectares at the end of the BTTA project,thus having an increase of 3.29%instead of 2%that has been initially proposed.However,the results show that the progress to meet the target in some afforestation classes is slow as compared to other categories.Farm forestry,plantation on communal lands and owners'plantation need special focus of the authority.Deforestation would affect 0.02 million hectares area of the project.The model under study may be used as a reference model that can be replicated to other areas where billion tree campaigns are going on.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Grant No.XDA19030105.
文摘Background In the climate change context,nature-based solution(NBS)is considered one of the effective tools to increase the resilience of socio-ecological system.The concept coincides with the government’s attempts of afforestation and reforestation programs that have been going on for 60 years in Bangladesh.This study,therefore,envisaged understanding how NBS(mangrove afforestation and reforestation)works to promote climate change resilience through the synthetization of remote sensing-based big earth data,statistical tools,and models.The study took the entire coast of Bangladesh except for Sundarbans Reserve Forest and rolled back to 1962 to work on 60 years’time series data.Declassified CORONA satellite imagery along with Landsat satellite imagery was used,which is the first-ever attempt in the remote sensing-based ecosystem work in Bangladesh.Results The study’s main innovation is to spatially establish the effectiveness of the NBS.The study critically assessed and estimated stable lands and their socio-economic benefits as part of the effectiveness of the NBS.As part of the NBS-derived benefits in the context of climate change,it estimated the sequestrated carbon in mangrove forests.A significant positive relationship was observed between the increase of mangroves and stable lands.Near about 448,011 ha of agricultural land was stabilized due to the NBS intervention whose economic value is 18,837 million USD.In addition,29,755.71 kt of carbon have been sequestrated due to NBS program.Conclusions The concept of NBS is still in the development stage and very little or no work has been done so far in measuring and labeling the effectiveness of the NBS.Therefore,our study can innovatively contribute to the scientific community to show the effectiveness of the NBS in three domains(social,economic and ecological)in the changing climatic scenario.
