通过对灰色GM[1,1]模型的算法改进,将改进后的灰色模型与马尔科夫链结合,既可以发挥灰色系统预测精确的特点,又可以利用马尔科夫链对准确预测波动性数据的优势。在灰色马尔科夫链模型的算法基础上,采用Visual Studio 2005开发环境,进行...通过对灰色GM[1,1]模型的算法改进,将改进后的灰色模型与马尔科夫链结合,既可以发挥灰色系统预测精确的特点,又可以利用马尔科夫链对准确预测波动性数据的优势。在灰色马尔科夫链模型的算法基础上,采用Visual Studio 2005开发环境,进行灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计。最后利用南方某地区十年来土地利用数据进行系统验证,结果表明,灰色马尔科夫链模型能很大地提高预测的精度和效果,符合实际要求。展开更多
This article puts forward the gray markov prediction model to predict mine gas emission by combining grey system theory and markov chain theory. And GM (1, 1) model is established in the first place for grey data by t...This article puts forward the gray markov prediction model to predict mine gas emission by combining grey system theory and markov chain theory. And GM (1, 1) model is established in the first place for grey data by the model. To eliminate the error, and improve the prediction accuracy of the model, secondary parameters fitting was done on the basis of GM (1, 1) model. And we get second parameter fitting for trend prediction. Then using Markov state transfer probability matrix prediction method to do quadratic fitting for its predictive value, which can improve the prediction precision of the volatile random variables. It proves the prediction results of the model are satisfactory by analyzing history data of gas emission prediction. This conclusion broadens the application scope of grey forecast model and provides a new method for mine gas emission scientific forecast.展开更多
A novel method for detecting anomalous program behavior is presented, which is applicable to hostbased intrusion detection systems that monitor system call activities. The method constructs a homogeneous Markov chain ...A novel method for detecting anomalous program behavior is presented, which is applicable to hostbased intrusion detection systems that monitor system call activities. The method constructs a homogeneous Markov chain model to characterize the normal behavior of a privileged program, and associates the states of the Markov chain with the unique system calls in the training data. At the detection stage, the probabilities that the Markov chain model supports the system call sequences generated by the program are computed. A low probability indicates an anomalous sequence that may result from intrusive activities. Then a decision rule based on the number of anomalous sequences in a locality frame is adopted to classify the program＇s behavior. The method gives attention to both computational efficiency and detection accuracy, and is especially suitable for on-line detection. It has been applied to practical host-based intrusion detection systems.展开更多
文摘通过对灰色GM[1,1]模型的算法改进,将改进后的灰色模型与马尔科夫链结合,既可以发挥灰色系统预测精确的特点,又可以利用马尔科夫链对准确预测波动性数据的优势。在灰色马尔科夫链模型的算法基础上,采用Visual Studio 2005开发环境,进行灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计。最后利用南方某地区十年来土地利用数据进行系统验证,结果表明,灰色马尔科夫链模型能很大地提高预测的精度和效果,符合实际要求。
文摘This article puts forward the gray markov prediction model to predict mine gas emission by combining grey system theory and markov chain theory. And GM (1, 1) model is established in the first place for grey data by the model. To eliminate the error, and improve the prediction accuracy of the model, secondary parameters fitting was done on the basis of GM (1, 1) model. And we get second parameter fitting for trend prediction. Then using Markov state transfer probability matrix prediction method to do quadratic fitting for its predictive value, which can improve the prediction precision of the volatile random variables. It proves the prediction results of the model are satisfactory by analyzing history data of gas emission prediction. This conclusion broadens the application scope of grey forecast model and provides a new method for mine gas emission scientific forecast.
基金the National Grand Fundamental Research "973" Program of China (2004CB318109)the High-Technology Research and Development Plan of China (863-307-7-5)the National Information Security 242 Program ofChina (2005C39).
文摘A novel method for detecting anomalous program behavior is presented, which is applicable to hostbased intrusion detection systems that monitor system call activities. The method constructs a homogeneous Markov chain model to characterize the normal behavior of a privileged program, and associates the states of the Markov chain with the unique system calls in the training data. At the detection stage, the probabilities that the Markov chain model supports the system call sequences generated by the program are computed. A low probability indicates an anomalous sequence that may result from intrusive activities. Then a decision rule based on the number of anomalous sequences in a locality frame is adopted to classify the program＇s behavior. The method gives attention to both computational efficiency and detection accuracy, and is especially suitable for on-line detection. It has been applied to practical host-based intrusion detection systems.
