The SST variation in the equatorial Indian Ocean is studied with special interest in analyzing its dipole oscillation feature. The dipole oscillation appears to be stronger in September-November and weaker in January-...The SST variation in the equatorial Indian Ocean is studied with special interest in analyzing its dipole oscillation feature. The dipole oscillation appears to be stronger in September-November and weaker in January-April with higher SST in the west region and lower SST in the east region as the positive phase and higher SST in the east region and lower SST in the west region as the negative phase. Generally, the amplitude of the positive phase is larger than the negative phase. The interannual variation (4-5 year period) and the interdecadal variation (25-30 year period) also exist in the dipole. The analyses also showed the significant impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Asian monsoon activity, because the lower tropospheric wind fields over the Southern Asia, the Tibetan high in the upper troposphere and the subtropical high over the northwestern Pacific are all related to the Indian Ocean dipole. On the other, the Indian Ocean dipole still has significant impact on atmospheric circulation and climate in North America and the southern Indian Ocean region (including Australia and South Africa).展开更多
随着全球气候的改变,由极端降水事件所引发的干旱、洪涝、泥石流等自然灾害,引起了社会各界的广泛关注。本文基于雅鲁藏布江流域19个气象站点1973—2016年的逐日降水数据,使用线性倾向估计法、MannKendall非参数统计检验法和皮尔森相关...随着全球气候的改变,由极端降水事件所引发的干旱、洪涝、泥石流等自然灾害,引起了社会各界的广泛关注。本文基于雅鲁藏布江流域19个气象站点1973—2016年的逐日降水数据,使用线性倾向估计法、MannKendall非参数统计检验法和皮尔森相关系数法,分析了雅鲁藏布江流域极端降水事件的时空变化特征及其与印度洋偶极子指数(DMI)的相关性。结果表明:(1) 1973—2016年间,雅鲁藏布江流域极端降水指标整体上呈现出上升趋势,与流域内年平均降水量变化趋势相一致,其中降水日数(RD)、降水总量(PRCPTOT)、极端降水量(R95p)、连续湿润日数(CWD)指标均在95%信度水平上显著上升。RD、CWD极端降水指标分别在1995年左右、2001年左右发生了突变;(2)雅鲁藏布江流域的极端降水指标在空间上存在明显的差异性,表现出从东部到西部逐渐递减的分布特征。极端降水指标在雅鲁藏布江流域的空间分布特征表明,近年来,东部湿润地区暴雨事件可能更加频繁,洪涝灾害更加严重,西部地区则从相对干旱逐渐变得相对湿润;(3)对极端降水指标进行主成分分析,PRCPTOT和CWD指标的载荷在主成分1和主成分2中分别占0.94、0.71,表明可以用它们分别代表极端降水事件的降水量级和降水持续性;(4) 1—3月份的极端降水事件更容易受到印度洋偶极子(IOD)的影响,在雅鲁藏布江流域中部地区,2月份的DMI与PRCPTOT、CWD呈现出正相关关系,相关系数分别达到0.412和0.356,是易受DMI影响的主要地区。雅鲁藏布江流域在250 h Pa和500 h Pa的位势高度差值均存在负值中心,有利于极端降水事件的发生。研究结果为雅鲁藏布江流域水资源管理和灾害防治提供科学基础。展开更多
The simulated ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode events from three coupled GCMs with the same oceaniccomponent model, CPM0, CPM1 and FGCM0, are compared. The only difference between the CPM0 and theCPM1 comes fro...The simulated ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode events from three coupled GCMs with the same oceaniccomponent model, CPM0, CPM1 and FGCM0, are compared. The only difference between the CPM0 and theCPM1 comes from the coupling scheme at the airsea interface, e.g., flux anomaly coupling scheme for the former anddirect coupling scheme for the latter. The FGCM0 is also a directly coupled GCM, but its atmospheric componentmodel is the NCAR CCM3 rather than the NCC T63AGCM as in the other two coupled GCMs CPM0 and CPM1.All three coupled models show El Nio-like interannual variability in the tropic Pacific, but the FGCM0 shows a bitstronger amplitude of El Nio events and both the CPM0 and the CPM1 show much weaker amplitude than theobserved one. In the meanwhile, the quasi-biennial variability dominates in the FGCM0 simulations, and 4 a andlonger periods are significant in both the CPM0 and CPM1 models. As the El Nio events simulated by the threecoupled GCMs, the simulated Indian Ocean dipole mode events are stronger from the coupled model FGCM0 andweaker from both the CPM0 and CPM1 models than those from observation.展开更多
文摘使用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料研究了“单纯”ENSO事件、“单纯”IOD事件以及有IOD事件伴随发生的ENSO事件对中国夏季降水和气温的影响。结果表明:“单纯”ENSO事件、“单纯”IOD事件对中国夏季降水和气温均有显著影响,当E lN ino年有正IOD事件同时发生时,我国北方地区水汽增加,华北降水偏少现象得到抑制,我国大陆气温有所上升;当La N ina年有负IOD事件同时发生时,北方地区的水汽减少,不利于华北地区的降水,我国大陆气温有所下降。
基金This work was supported by the National Key Basic Science Program in China (Grant No.1998040903) and Chinese NSF (Grant No 498
文摘The SST variation in the equatorial Indian Ocean is studied with special interest in analyzing its dipole oscillation feature. The dipole oscillation appears to be stronger in September-November and weaker in January-April with higher SST in the west region and lower SST in the east region as the positive phase and higher SST in the east region and lower SST in the west region as the negative phase. Generally, the amplitude of the positive phase is larger than the negative phase. The interannual variation (4-5 year period) and the interdecadal variation (25-30 year period) also exist in the dipole. The analyses also showed the significant impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Asian monsoon activity, because the lower tropospheric wind fields over the Southern Asia, the Tibetan high in the upper troposphere and the subtropical high over the northwestern Pacific are all related to the Indian Ocean dipole. On the other, the Indian Ocean dipole still has significant impact on atmospheric circulation and climate in North America and the southern Indian Ocean region (including Australia and South Africa).
文摘随着全球气候的改变,由极端降水事件所引发的干旱、洪涝、泥石流等自然灾害,引起了社会各界的广泛关注。本文基于雅鲁藏布江流域19个气象站点1973—2016年的逐日降水数据,使用线性倾向估计法、MannKendall非参数统计检验法和皮尔森相关系数法,分析了雅鲁藏布江流域极端降水事件的时空变化特征及其与印度洋偶极子指数(DMI)的相关性。结果表明:(1) 1973—2016年间,雅鲁藏布江流域极端降水指标整体上呈现出上升趋势,与流域内年平均降水量变化趋势相一致,其中降水日数(RD)、降水总量(PRCPTOT)、极端降水量(R95p)、连续湿润日数(CWD)指标均在95%信度水平上显著上升。RD、CWD极端降水指标分别在1995年左右、2001年左右发生了突变;(2)雅鲁藏布江流域的极端降水指标在空间上存在明显的差异性,表现出从东部到西部逐渐递减的分布特征。极端降水指标在雅鲁藏布江流域的空间分布特征表明,近年来,东部湿润地区暴雨事件可能更加频繁,洪涝灾害更加严重,西部地区则从相对干旱逐渐变得相对湿润;(3)对极端降水指标进行主成分分析,PRCPTOT和CWD指标的载荷在主成分1和主成分2中分别占0.94、0.71,表明可以用它们分别代表极端降水事件的降水量级和降水持续性;(4) 1—3月份的极端降水事件更容易受到印度洋偶极子(IOD)的影响,在雅鲁藏布江流域中部地区,2月份的DMI与PRCPTOT、CWD呈现出正相关关系,相关系数分别达到0.412和0.356,是易受DMI影响的主要地区。雅鲁藏布江流域在250 h Pa和500 h Pa的位势高度差值均存在负值中心,有利于极端降水事件的发生。研究结果为雅鲁藏布江流域水资源管理和灾害防治提供科学基础。
基金the NationalNatural Foundation of China under contract Nos 40231004 and 40221503 the National Key Science Project of China under contract No.G200078502.
文摘The simulated ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode events from three coupled GCMs with the same oceaniccomponent model, CPM0, CPM1 and FGCM0, are compared. The only difference between the CPM0 and theCPM1 comes from the coupling scheme at the airsea interface, e.g., flux anomaly coupling scheme for the former anddirect coupling scheme for the latter. The FGCM0 is also a directly coupled GCM, but its atmospheric componentmodel is the NCAR CCM3 rather than the NCC T63AGCM as in the other two coupled GCMs CPM0 and CPM1.All three coupled models show El Nio-like interannual variability in the tropic Pacific, but the FGCM0 shows a bitstronger amplitude of El Nio events and both the CPM0 and the CPM1 show much weaker amplitude than theobserved one. In the meanwhile, the quasi-biennial variability dominates in the FGCM0 simulations, and 4 a andlonger periods are significant in both the CPM0 and CPM1 models. As the El Nio events simulated by the threecoupled GCMs, the simulated Indian Ocean dipole mode events are stronger from the coupled model FGCM0 andweaker from both the CPM0 and CPM1 models than those from observation.
