Based on the summer precipitation data from the Huaihe River valley and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1922 to 2007,we analyzed the interannual and interdecadal oscillation and probability dist...Based on the summer precipitation data from the Huaihe River valley and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1922 to 2007,we analyzed the interannual and interdecadal oscillation and probability distribution characteristics of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley during the same period,using the wavelet transform and generalized extreme distribution methods.Whereby,we studied the climate background of East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM),Sea Surface Temperature (SST),East Asia telecorrelation circulation,and their relationship with the interannual and interdecadal oscillation of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley.We further compared the difference of interdecadal oscillation of summer precipitation and the relevant climate background between the Huaihe River valley and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The results show that:1) The intensity change of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley is consistent with that of interdecadal oscillation.The summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley has been more than normal since the end of the 1990s,and the QBO is very significant.Meanwhile,the probability of occurrence of extreme heavy rainfall increased obviously.2) The interdecadal oscillation of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley has a close relationship with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and interdecadal oscillation of EASM.When PDO is in the cold phase and EASM weakens,the summer precipitation will be greater than normal.3) QBO of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley is mainly controlled by that of EASM,and it has a relationship with a circulation pattern of "positive-negative-positive" from the high to the low latitudes in East Asia.4) There is interdecadal phase difference in summer precipitation between the Huaihe River valley and the middle and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River,which is mainly related to the intensity and position of West Pacific subtropical high.展开更多
利用NCAR和NOAA发展的新一代中尺度模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecast),对2003年7月上旬发生在我国淮河流域三个连续暴雨过程(7月1—11日)进行了数值模拟试验,研究的重点是了解不同水平分辨率(45、30、20和10 km)对WRF模拟结果的...利用NCAR和NOAA发展的新一代中尺度模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecast),对2003年7月上旬发生在我国淮河流域三个连续暴雨过程(7月1—11日)进行了数值模拟试验,研究的重点是了解不同水平分辨率(45、30、20和10 km)对WRF模拟结果的影响。模拟结果与观测的比较表明,WRF模式能够合理地模拟不同时段的降水带以及平均环流形势的分布特征,对于区域平均等压面上的物理量也有较好的模拟性能。不同分辨率的模拟结果比较表明:不同分辨率对降水的模拟效果影响较大,提高模式水平分辨率有助于预报效果的改善,但高分辨率模拟的降水强度偏强,空报偏多;不同分辨率对环流形势的模拟效果影响不大,各个分辨率的低层风场误差都存在一个5～6天的波动,并向模式的中高层传播,传播速度约为3天。展开更多
Using daily outgoing long-wave radiation （OLR） data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration （NOAA） and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （N...Using daily outgoing long-wave radiation （OLR） data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration （NOAA） and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis data of geopotential height fields for 1979-2006, the relationship between persistent heavy rain events （PHREs） in the Huaihe River valley （HRV） and the distribution pattern of convective activity in the tropical western Pacific warm pool （WPWP） is investigated. Based on nine cases of PHREs in the HRV, common characteristics of the West Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） show that the northern edge of the WPSH continues to lie in the HRV and is associated with the persistent ＂north weak south strong＂ distribution pattern of convective activities in the WPWP. Composite analysis of OLR leading the circulation indicates that the response of the WPSH to OLR anomaly patterns lags by about 1-2 days. In order to explain the reason for the effects of the distribution pattern of convective activities in the WPWP on the persistent northern edge of the WPSH in the HRV, four typical persistent heavy and light rain events in the Yangtze River valley （YRV） are contrasted with the PHREs in the HRV. The comparison indicates that when the distribution pattern of the convective activities anomaly behaves in a weak （strong） manner across the whole WPWP, persistent heavy （light） rain tends to occur in the YRV. When the distribution pattern of the convective activities anomaly behaves according to the ＂north weak south strong＂ pattern in the WPWP, persistent heavy rain tends to occur in the HRV. The effects of the ＂north weak south strong＂ distribution pattern of convective activities on PHREs in the HRV are not obvious over the seasonal mean timescale, perhaps due to the non-extreme status of convective activities in the WPWP.展开更多
基金supported by State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,COPES Program (Grant No.GYHY200706005)China-Japan Intergovernmental Cooperation Program from Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
文摘Based on the summer precipitation data from the Huaihe River valley and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1922 to 2007,we analyzed the interannual and interdecadal oscillation and probability distribution characteristics of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley during the same period,using the wavelet transform and generalized extreme distribution methods.Whereby,we studied the climate background of East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM),Sea Surface Temperature (SST),East Asia telecorrelation circulation,and their relationship with the interannual and interdecadal oscillation of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley.We further compared the difference of interdecadal oscillation of summer precipitation and the relevant climate background between the Huaihe River valley and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The results show that:1) The intensity change of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley is consistent with that of interdecadal oscillation.The summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley has been more than normal since the end of the 1990s,and the QBO is very significant.Meanwhile,the probability of occurrence of extreme heavy rainfall increased obviously.2) The interdecadal oscillation of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley has a close relationship with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and interdecadal oscillation of EASM.When PDO is in the cold phase and EASM weakens,the summer precipitation will be greater than normal.3) QBO of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley is mainly controlled by that of EASM,and it has a relationship with a circulation pattern of "positive-negative-positive" from the high to the low latitudes in East Asia.4) There is interdecadal phase difference in summer precipitation between the Huaihe River valley and the middle and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River,which is mainly related to the intensity and position of West Pacific subtropical high.
基金国家社会科学基金课题"‘人-水’和谐机制研究--基于太湖淮河流域的农村实地调查"(项目编号:07BSH036)美国社会科学协会(Social Science Research Council)中国环境与健康项目(China Environment and Health Initiative)"环境健康风险的公众认知与应对策略--基于若干癌症村的实证研究"
文摘利用NCAR和NOAA发展的新一代中尺度模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecast),对2003年7月上旬发生在我国淮河流域三个连续暴雨过程(7月1—11日)进行了数值模拟试验,研究的重点是了解不同水平分辨率(45、30、20和10 km)对WRF模拟结果的影响。模拟结果与观测的比较表明,WRF模式能够合理地模拟不同时段的降水带以及平均环流形势的分布特征,对于区域平均等压面上的物理量也有较好的模拟性能。不同分辨率的模拟结果比较表明:不同分辨率对降水的模拟效果影响较大,提高模式水平分辨率有助于预报效果的改善,但高分辨率模拟的降水强度偏强,空报偏多;不同分辨率对环流形势的模拟效果影响不大,各个分辨率的低层风场误差都存在一个5～6天的波动,并向模式的中高层传播,传播速度约为3天。
基金This study was supported by the ＂National Key Programme for Developing Basic Science＂ projects under Grant No. 2004CB418303the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40705022.
文摘Using daily outgoing long-wave radiation （OLR） data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration （NOAA） and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis data of geopotential height fields for 1979-2006, the relationship between persistent heavy rain events （PHREs） in the Huaihe River valley （HRV） and the distribution pattern of convective activity in the tropical western Pacific warm pool （WPWP） is investigated. Based on nine cases of PHREs in the HRV, common characteristics of the West Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） show that the northern edge of the WPSH continues to lie in the HRV and is associated with the persistent ＂north weak south strong＂ distribution pattern of convective activities in the WPWP. Composite analysis of OLR leading the circulation indicates that the response of the WPSH to OLR anomaly patterns lags by about 1-2 days. In order to explain the reason for the effects of the distribution pattern of convective activities in the WPWP on the persistent northern edge of the WPSH in the HRV, four typical persistent heavy and light rain events in the Yangtze River valley （YRV） are contrasted with the PHREs in the HRV. The comparison indicates that when the distribution pattern of the convective activities anomaly behaves in a weak （strong） manner across the whole WPWP, persistent heavy （light） rain tends to occur in the YRV. When the distribution pattern of the convective activities anomaly behaves according to the ＂north weak south strong＂ pattern in the WPWP, persistent heavy rain tends to occur in the HRV. The effects of the ＂north weak south strong＂ distribution pattern of convective activities on PHREs in the HRV are not obvious over the seasonal mean timescale, perhaps due to the non-extreme status of convective activities in the WPWP.
