Wind power forecasting is of great significance to the safety, reliability and stability of power grid. In this study, the GARCH type models are employed to explore the asymmetric features of wind power time series an...Wind power forecasting is of great significance to the safety, reliability and stability of power grid. In this study, the GARCH type models are employed to explore the asymmetric features of wind power time series and improved forecasting precision. Benchmark Symmetric Curve (BSC) and Asymmetric Curve Index (ACI) are proposed as new asymmetric volatility analytical tool, and several generalized applications are presented. In the case study, the utility of the GARCH-type models in depicting time-varying volatility of wind power time series is demonstrated with the asymmetry effect, verified by the asymmetric parameter estimation. With benefit of the enhanced News Impact Curve (NIC) analysis, the responses in volatility to the magnitude and the sign of shocks are emphasized. The results are all confirmed to be consistent despite varied model specifications. The case study verifies that the models considering the asymmetric effect of volatility benefit the wind power forecasting performance.展开更多
Water entry problems represent complex multiphase flows involving air,water,and structure interaction,occurring rapidly in rough seas,and potentially effecting structural integrity of floating structures.This paper ex...Water entry problems represent complex multiphase flows involving air,water,and structure interaction,occurring rapidly in rough seas,and potentially effecting structural integrity of floating structures.This paper experimentally investigates asymmetric slamming loads acting on a 3-D elastic wedge section.The specimen,featuring two different bottom plates(stiffened and unstiffened),each 4 mm thick,aims to assess the effect of structural stiffness on dynamic loads.The experiments are conducted at different drop heights of 25 cm and 50 cm and varying heel angles from 5°to 25°.The paper describes the experimental conditions,including wedge geometry,material properties,and the test plan.The study explores the influence of heel angle on impact acceleration,revealing an increase in peak acceleration with a higher inclination angle,particularly in the vertical direction.Additionally,the hydrodynamic pressure resulting from asymmetric slamming is presented.The pressure results analyzed and compared at different locations along the length of the wedge.The experimental findings indicate that,despite the leeward side(stiffened)experiencing a smaller hydrodynamic load,the heel angle significantly affects pressure results on the windward side(unstiffened),leading to a more pronounced dynamic response.The time history of pressure results emphasizes the effect of elastic vibrations,particularly noticeable on the unstiffened bottom plate.This study contributes to a deeper understanding of asymmetric slamming on aluminum structures,facilitating the enhancement of mathematical models and the validation of numerical simulations.展开更多
Impact problems associated with water entry have important applications in various aspects of naval architecture and ocean engineering. Estimation of hydrodynamic impact forces especially during the first instances af...Impact problems associated with water entry have important applications in various aspects of naval architecture and ocean engineering. Estimation of hydrodynamic impact forces especially during the first instances after the impact is very important and is of interest. Since the estimation of hydrodynamic impact load plays an important role in safe design and also in evaluation of structural weight and costs, it is better to use a reliable and accurate prediction method instead of a simple estimation resulted by analyzing methods. In landing of flying boats, some phenomena such as weather conditions and strong winds can cause asymmetric instead of symmetric descent. In this paper, a numerical simulation of the asymmetric impact of a wedge, as the step of a flying boat, considering dynamic equations in two-phase flow is taken into account. The dynamic motion of the wedge in two-phase flow is solved based on finite volume method with volume of fluid （VOF） scheme considering dynamic equations. Then the effects of different angles of impact and water depth on the velocity change and slamming forces in an asymmetric impact are investigated. The comparison between the simulation results and experimental data verifies the accuracy of the method applied in the present study.展开更多
基金funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (51577025).
文摘Wind power forecasting is of great significance to the safety, reliability and stability of power grid. In this study, the GARCH type models are employed to explore the asymmetric features of wind power time series and improved forecasting precision. Benchmark Symmetric Curve (BSC) and Asymmetric Curve Index (ACI) are proposed as new asymmetric volatility analytical tool, and several generalized applications are presented. In the case study, the utility of the GARCH-type models in depicting time-varying volatility of wind power time series is demonstrated with the asymmetry effect, verified by the asymmetric parameter estimation. With benefit of the enhanced News Impact Curve (NIC) analysis, the responses in volatility to the magnitude and the sign of shocks are emphasized. The results are all confirmed to be consistent despite varied model specifications. The case study verifies that the models considering the asymmetric effect of volatility benefit the wind power forecasting performance.
基金supported by the Estonian Research Council (Grant No.PRG1820).
文摘Water entry problems represent complex multiphase flows involving air,water,and structure interaction,occurring rapidly in rough seas,and potentially effecting structural integrity of floating structures.This paper experimentally investigates asymmetric slamming loads acting on a 3-D elastic wedge section.The specimen,featuring two different bottom plates(stiffened and unstiffened),each 4 mm thick,aims to assess the effect of structural stiffness on dynamic loads.The experiments are conducted at different drop heights of 25 cm and 50 cm and varying heel angles from 5°to 25°.The paper describes the experimental conditions,including wedge geometry,material properties,and the test plan.The study explores the influence of heel angle on impact acceleration,revealing an increase in peak acceleration with a higher inclination angle,particularly in the vertical direction.Additionally,the hydrodynamic pressure resulting from asymmetric slamming is presented.The pressure results analyzed and compared at different locations along the length of the wedge.The experimental findings indicate that,despite the leeward side(stiffened)experiencing a smaller hydrodynamic load,the heel angle significantly affects pressure results on the windward side(unstiffened),leading to a more pronounced dynamic response.The time history of pressure results emphasizes the effect of elastic vibrations,particularly noticeable on the unstiffened bottom plate.This study contributes to a deeper understanding of asymmetric slamming on aluminum structures,facilitating the enhancement of mathematical models and the validation of numerical simulations.
文摘Impact problems associated with water entry have important applications in various aspects of naval architecture and ocean engineering. Estimation of hydrodynamic impact forces especially during the first instances after the impact is very important and is of interest. Since the estimation of hydrodynamic impact load plays an important role in safe design and also in evaluation of structural weight and costs, it is better to use a reliable and accurate prediction method instead of a simple estimation resulted by analyzing methods. In landing of flying boats, some phenomena such as weather conditions and strong winds can cause asymmetric instead of symmetric descent. In this paper, a numerical simulation of the asymmetric impact of a wedge, as the step of a flying boat, considering dynamic equations in two-phase flow is taken into account. The dynamic motion of the wedge in two-phase flow is solved based on finite volume method with volume of fluid （VOF） scheme considering dynamic equations. Then the effects of different angles of impact and water depth on the velocity change and slamming forces in an asymmetric impact are investigated. The comparison between the simulation results and experimental data verifies the accuracy of the method applied in the present study.
