摘要
近年来,经济政策不确定性明显。经济政策不确定性虽然是典型的不可保宏观风险,但背景风险会影响人们的投保行为。考虑到导致保费变化的因素是复杂的,保费变动也是动态且非完全线性,使用2006年1月至2021年9月的月度数据,运用非线性自回归分布滞后模型(NARDL)考察了经济政策不确定性(EPU)和人均可支配收入对不同收入地区保险市场发展的非对称影响,区分财产保险和人身保险进行深入分析,并探究地区收入差异在EPU影响保险市场过程中的调节效应。研究发现:EPU对不同收入地区保险市场的影响具有非对称和非线性的特征,长期影响与短期影响也不一致。整体上,EPU对保险密度和财险密度有长期的正向影响,但对人身险密度有长期的负向影响;EPU和收入对保险密度的影响有动态调整,由短期波动大、不稳定逐渐在长期趋于稳定;随着收入增加,EPU对保险密度的影响力度增强,但收入对保险密度的影响力度减弱;相比低收入和高收入地区,EPU和收入对中收入地区的影响更明显。监管部门应意识到EPU的重要影响,在推动不同收入地区保险市场发展时考虑EPU对保险密度的非线性和非对称影响。
In recent years,the international situation is turbulent,the economy is facing transformation,and economic policy uncertainty is aggravated.Although economic policy uncertainty is a typical uninsurable macro risk,background risk affects people’s insurance behavior of insurable risk.Regarding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on insurance development,foreign scholars have not reached a consensus,and there are few domestic studies.Considering that the factors leading to premium changes are complex and premium changes are dynamic and non linear,monthly data from January 2006 to September 2021 are chosen and the Nonlinear Auto-regressive Distributed Lag(NARDL)model is used to investigate the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)and per capita disposable income on the development of insurance market in regions with different income levels.The results show that the impact of EPU on the insurance market in different income regions is asymmetric and nonlinear,and the long-term impact is not consistent with the short-term impact.On the whole,EPU has a long-term positive impact on insurance density and property insurance density,but a long-term negative impact on life insurance density.The impact of EPU and income on insurance density has a dynamic adjustment,from large fluctuations and instability in the short term to stability in the long term.With the increase of income,the impact of EPU on insurance density gets stronger,the impact of income on insurance density gets weaker.What’s more,the impact of EPU and income is more pronounced in middle income regions than in low and high income regions.Therefore,policy makers and regulatory authorities should be aware of the important impact of EPU on the development of insurance market,and consider the nonlinear and asymmetric impact of EPU on insurance density when promoting the development of insurance market in different income regions.
作者
金菲
粟芳
JIN Fei;SU Fang(School of Finance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
北大核心
2023年第11期90-104,共15页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“金融一体化背景下保险市场风险预警机制构建研究”(72101140)。
关键词
经济政策不确定性
地区收入差异
保险密度
保险市场
非对称影响
economic policy uncertainty
regional income disparities
insurance density
insurance market
asymmetric impact
