[Objective] The research aimed to understand role of the forecast data about physical quantity field in precipitation forecast.[Method] By contrasting forecast and actual situation of the precipitation in Yantai durin...[Objective] The research aimed to understand role of the forecast data about physical quantity field in precipitation forecast.[Method] By contrasting forecast and actual situation of the precipitation in Yantai during 2-3 July and 12-15 September,2011,advantages and disadvantages of the different numerical forecast models (Japan fax chart,European center,MM5,Grapes and T639) were analyzed.[Result] MICAPS system could provide live situation of the physical quantity field,but couldn't provide the future evolution situation.Japan fax chart,European center,MM5,Grapes and T639 could provide future evolution situation of the physical quantity field.[Conclusion] The contrasts and analyses on forecast situations of the physical quantity fields in many precipitation processes showed that evolutions of the vertical velocity,temperature dew point difference,relative humidity and wind field at the different heights could improve forecast accuracy of the precipitation in Yantai.展开更多
Based on the observation data of 24-hour cumulative precipitation from 92 ground meteorological observation stations in Jiangxi province from March to July during 2015-2016 and the high-resolution numerical forecast d...Based on the observation data of 24-hour cumulative precipitation from 92 ground meteorological observation stations in Jiangxi province from March to July during 2015-2016 and the high-resolution numerical forecast data of precipitation predicted within 24-72 h by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts（ ECMWF）,the Gamma function was used as the fitting function of probability distribution of cumulative precipitation to match the probability of predicted and observed precipitation. Moreover,the change of forecast score before and after the correction was tested. The results showed that the predicted values of heavy precipitation based on ECMWF model were smaller than the observed values,while the predicted values of light precipitation were larger than the observed values. The probability matching correction method could be used to effectively correct systematic errors of model forecast,and the correction effect of all grades of precipitation（ especially for rainstorm） was good.The shorter the period of validity was,the better the correction effect was. The correction method has a good application effect in the interpretation of model precipitation products,and can provide better security services for agricultural production.展开更多
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to understand role of the forecast data about physical quantity field in precipitation forecast.[Method] By contrasting forecast and actual situation of the precipitation in Yantai during 2-3 July and 12-15 September,2011,advantages and disadvantages of the different numerical forecast models (Japan fax chart,European center,MM5,Grapes and T639) were analyzed.[Result] MICAPS system could provide live situation of the physical quantity field,but couldn't provide the future evolution situation.Japan fax chart,European center,MM5,Grapes and T639 could provide future evolution situation of the physical quantity field.[Conclusion] The contrasts and analyses on forecast situations of the physical quantity fields in many precipitation processes showed that evolutions of the vertical velocity,temperature dew point difference,relative humidity and wind field at the different heights could improve forecast accuracy of the precipitation in Yantai.
基金Supported by the Special Project for Forecasters of China Meteorological Administration(CMAYBY2016-038)
文摘Based on the observation data of 24-hour cumulative precipitation from 92 ground meteorological observation stations in Jiangxi province from March to July during 2015-2016 and the high-resolution numerical forecast data of precipitation predicted within 24-72 h by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts（ ECMWF）,the Gamma function was used as the fitting function of probability distribution of cumulative precipitation to match the probability of predicted and observed precipitation. Moreover,the change of forecast score before and after the correction was tested. The results showed that the predicted values of heavy precipitation based on ECMWF model were smaller than the observed values,while the predicted values of light precipitation were larger than the observed values. The probability matching correction method could be used to effectively correct systematic errors of model forecast,and the correction effect of all grades of precipitation（ especially for rainstorm） was good.The shorter the period of validity was,the better the correction effect was. The correction method has a good application effect in the interpretation of model precipitation products,and can provide better security services for agricultural production.
