Reconstruction of natural streamflow is fundamental to the sustainable management of water resources.In China,previous reconstructions from sparse and poor-quality gauge measurements have led to large biases in simula...Reconstruction of natural streamflow is fundamental to the sustainable management of water resources.In China,previous reconstructions from sparse and poor-quality gauge measurements have led to large biases in simulation of the interannual and seasonal variability of natural flows.Here we use a well-trained and tested land surface model coupled to a routing model with flow direction correction to reconstruct the first high-quality gauge-based natural streamflow dataset for China,covering all its330 catchments during the period from 1961 to 2018.A stronger positive linear relationship holds between upstream routing cells and drainage areas,after flow direction correction to 330 catchments.We also introduce a parameter-uncertainty analysis framework including sensitivity analysis,optimization,and regionalization,which further minimizes biases between modeled and inferred natural streamflow from natural or near-natural gauges.The resulting behavior of the natural hydrological system is represented properly by the model which achieves high skill metric values of the monthly streamflow,with about 83%of the 330 catchments having Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)>0.7,and about56%of the 330 catchments having Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient(KGE)>0.7.The proposed construction scheme has important implications for similar simulation studies in other regions,and the developed low bias long-term national datasets by statistical postprocessing should be useful in supporting river management activities in China.展开更多
国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,CMIP)自20世纪90年代中期创建以来迅速发展,为全球气候变化的模拟和未来预估提供了不可替代的数据支持。论文系统回顾了CMIP1到CMIP6的发展历程,包含理论框架、未来情景构...国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,CMIP)自20世纪90年代中期创建以来迅速发展,为全球气候变化的模拟和未来预估提供了不可替代的数据支持。论文系统回顾了CMIP1到CMIP6的发展历程,包含理论框架、未来情景构建、国际参与情况等方面。在此基础上,论文全面总结了CMIP模式对全球及中国区域气温、降水及其他变量的模拟能力,并重点比较了CMIP3、CMIP5和CMIP6模式的历史试验模拟结果。随CMIP的不断发展,模式在物理参数化方案、空间分辨率等方面有了一定的提高,其模拟能力也随之不断改善。但模式对区域尺度气候特征的模拟能力仍然有限,尤其是对于中小尺度降水变化特征的模拟,并且不同模式的模拟能力存在很大差异。最后,论文针对以上问题展望了CMIP模式的可能发展方向。展开更多
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(2019QZKK0405)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42041006,41877155)+1 种基金support from the Center for Geodata and Analysis,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University(https://gda.bnu.edu.cn/)reviewed by Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China(GS(2021)7303)。
文摘Reconstruction of natural streamflow is fundamental to the sustainable management of water resources.In China,previous reconstructions from sparse and poor-quality gauge measurements have led to large biases in simulation of the interannual and seasonal variability of natural flows.Here we use a well-trained and tested land surface model coupled to a routing model with flow direction correction to reconstruct the first high-quality gauge-based natural streamflow dataset for China,covering all its330 catchments during the period from 1961 to 2018.A stronger positive linear relationship holds between upstream routing cells and drainage areas,after flow direction correction to 330 catchments.We also introduce a parameter-uncertainty analysis framework including sensitivity analysis,optimization,and regionalization,which further minimizes biases between modeled and inferred natural streamflow from natural or near-natural gauges.The resulting behavior of the natural hydrological system is represented properly by the model which achieves high skill metric values of the monthly streamflow,with about 83%of the 330 catchments having Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)>0.7,and about56%of the 330 catchments having Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient(KGE)>0.7.The proposed construction scheme has important implications for similar simulation studies in other regions,and the developed low bias long-term national datasets by statistical postprocessing should be useful in supporting river management activities in China.
文摘国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,CMIP)自20世纪90年代中期创建以来迅速发展,为全球气候变化的模拟和未来预估提供了不可替代的数据支持。论文系统回顾了CMIP1到CMIP6的发展历程,包含理论框架、未来情景构建、国际参与情况等方面。在此基础上,论文全面总结了CMIP模式对全球及中国区域气温、降水及其他变量的模拟能力,并重点比较了CMIP3、CMIP5和CMIP6模式的历史试验模拟结果。随CMIP的不断发展,模式在物理参数化方案、空间分辨率等方面有了一定的提高,其模拟能力也随之不断改善。但模式对区域尺度气候特征的模拟能力仍然有限,尤其是对于中小尺度降水变化特征的模拟,并且不同模式的模拟能力存在很大差异。最后,论文针对以上问题展望了CMIP模式的可能发展方向。
