摘要
为探讨人口年龄结构变化对新疆兵团慢性非传染性疾病(以下简称为慢病)医疗费用的影响.采用兵团第六次人口普查数据,采用年龄移算法预测2020年新疆兵团人口;以2011年兵团各年龄组慢病人均费用为基数,结合2020年人口数预测出2020年慢病医疗费用.结果显示,2020年新疆兵团人口为282.12万人,年均增长率为0.86％;34～44岁组和55～64岁组人口变化最明显,年均增长率分别为-8.17％和8.09％;65岁及以上人口比例为14.49％;慢病医疗费用年均增长率仅为1.53％;35～44岁组和55～64岁组费用变化率分别为-53.57％和101.43％.由此可知,基于人口年龄结构的变化,到2020年兵团慢病医疗费用略有增长,且表现为低年龄组负增长、高年龄组正增长;医保部门需探索建立老年照护保险制度,加强老年人的健康管理和慢病防控.
To explore the impact of changes in the age structure of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps on chronic non-communicable diseases(NCDs) medical expenditure. Based on the Sixth Corps census, the age-shifting algorithm was used to predict 2020 population. Based on 2011 per capita costs of NCDs in each age group, the medical expenditure of NCDs in2020 will be forecasted. The population is 2.82 million in Corps in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 0.86%; The most obvious change is the 34-44 age group and 55-64 age group, an average annual growth rate is 8.17% and 8.09%respectively; population of 65 years and old is 14.49%; the average annual growth rate of NCDs medical expenditure is only1.53%; The NCDs medical expenditure change by in the 35-44 age group and 55-64 age group is 53.57% and 101.43%,respectively. Base on changes in the age structure, the Corps of NCDs medical expenditure only show a small increase, and NCDs medical expenditure in a younger age group would experience negative growth and high age group experience positive growth trend. Health insurance need to explore the establishment of the insurance system, strengthen the health management and prevention of chronic diseases of the elderly.
出处
《石河子大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2016年第6期-,共4页
Journal of Shihezi University(Natural Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71363047)
新疆兵团科技攻关计划项目(2012BA044)
关键词
新疆生产建设兵团
慢病
人口年龄结构
医疗费用
The Xinjiang production and Construction Corps
chronic non-communicable disease
age structure
medical expenditure
