摘要
本文以1971~2014年延河干支流的枣园站、杏河站及延安站的年最小7d径流量数据为研究对象,分析了其径流序列的趋势变化及概率分布函数特征关系,得到了不同保证率下的枯季径流。结果显示延河流域杏河和延安水文站的年最小7d径流量序列表现为显著上升趋势,枣园站呈非显著上升趋势。从枯水分布特征上看,杏河站年最小7d径流量序列的最优分布为两参数对数正态分布(LN-2),而枣园和延安站的最优拟合分布为P-III型,各站点对应的95%频率下的枯水径流分别为1.14万m3、1.08万m3和2.13万m3。
In this paper, six probability distribution functions were employed to analyze annual minimum 7d runoff series from 1971 to 2014 at Zaoyuan, Xinghe and Yanan gauged stations, located at the main and tributaries in the Yan River basin. The different low runoff was calculated under different guarantee rates and the trend change of runoff series was investigated. The results demonstrate that the annual minimum 7d runoff at Xinghe and Yanan stations shows a significant upward trend, while Zaoyuan station shows a non-significant upward trend. Focused on distribution characteristics of low runoff, the lognormal distribution (LN-2) can fit annual minimum 7d runoff series well at Xinghe station, while the P-III distribution is more suitable for the Yanan and Zaoyuan stations. The 95% frequency corresponding low runoff is 21,254.4 m3, 11,387.5 m3and 10,800.0 m3, respectively.
出处
《水资源研究》
2020年第6期589-596,共8页
Journal of Water Resources Research
