摘要
利用1959~2016年海河流域57个站点的降水资料,采用最小二乘趋势拟合、Mann-Kendall非参数检验和Morlet小波等方法,分析了海河流域降水的趋势、突变及周期特征。结果表明:近60年来,海河流域降水总体呈减少趋势,线性倾向率为?0.57 mm a-2;海河流域降水空间的总趋势是由中北部平原区分别向西北和东南两侧减少;没有检测到明显的突变过程;海河流域降水量存在2.5年、4.9年显著周期(P <0.05),以及9.8年、16.5年和23.4年非显著性周期。显著性周期主要发生在1959~1976年和1986~2005年。根据近60年降雨规律,2005~2016年海河流域处于降水偏少期,预测未来几年很有可能向降水充沛期过渡。
According to the precipitation data of 57 meteorological stations in Haihe basin during 1957-2016,temporal variation of precipitation characteristics was explored used the least-squares linear model,Mann-Kendall method,and Morlet wavelet.The results showed that:1)annual precipitation in Haihe basin decreased with an average slope of?0.57 mm a?2;2)precipitation decreased from the rainy region in the northern plains to northwest and southeast region;3)no abrupt changes were detected for annual precipitation;and 4)two significant periods(at a 95%confident level)of 2.5 and 4.9 years and three non-significant periods of 9.8,16.5 and 23.4 years were detected on a basin scale,and the significant periods mainly detected during 1959-1976 and 1986-2005.Furthermore,all of the results indicated that annual precipitation is less than normal period from 2005 to 2016,and rainy periods(more than normal period)will come in the recent years.
出处
《水资源研究》
2019年第2期117-124,共8页
Journal of Water Resources Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(No.51579008)
水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2018ZX07110001)
北京师范大学学科交叉建设项目
关键词
降水量
时间趋势
突变
周期
海河流域
Precipitation
Temporal Trends
Abrupt Changes
Periods
Haihe Basin
