摘要
In recent years, Senegal has been confronted with increasingly frequent and damaging extreme events. In the context of climate change, we conducted this study to characterize the trends of rainfall extremes in Senegal. In this work, we used daily rainfall data from 27 stations in Senegal from the period 1951 to 2005 (55 years). To study their linear trends, non-stationary extreme value models with time as a covariate are fitted to evaluate them. Our results indicate a decreasing trend of extreme rainfalls at most of the stations except for 5 stations. However, the decreasing trends are only significant for two stations (Thiès and Kidira), however, this can only be taken as information that climate change may have already impacted extreme rainfalls. For the 20-year and 30-year return periods, the results show that they have undergone changes, in fact for almost all stations, the trends in return periods are decreasing.
In recent years, Senegal has been confronted with increasingly frequent and damaging extreme events. In the context of climate change, we conducted this study to characterize the trends of rainfall extremes in Senegal. In this work, we used daily rainfall data from 27 stations in Senegal from the period 1951 to 2005 (55 years). To study their linear trends, non-stationary extreme value models with time as a covariate are fitted to evaluate them. Our results indicate a decreasing trend of extreme rainfalls at most of the stations except for 5 stations. However, the decreasing trends are only significant for two stations (Thiès and Kidira), however, this can only be taken as information that climate change may have already impacted extreme rainfalls. For the 20-year and 30-year return periods, the results show that they have undergone changes, in fact for almost all stations, the trends in return periods are decreasing.
作者
Mamadou Sarr
Mahamat Adoum Moussa
El Hadji Deme
Bouya Diop
Mamadou Sarr;Mahamat Adoum Moussa;El Hadji Deme;Bouya Diop(Laboratoire des Sciences de l’Atmosphère et des Océans Matériaux-Energies-Dispositifs (LSAOMED), Université Gaston Berger, Saint-Louis, Sénégal;Ecole Nationale Supérieur des TIC (ENASTIC), N’Djamena, Tchad;Laboratoire d’Etudes et de Recherches en Statistique et Développement (LERSTAD), Université Gaston Berger, Saint-Louis, Sénégal)
