摘要
Climate change is one environmental threat that poses great challenges to the future development prospects of Ethiopia. The study used the statistically downscaled daily data in 30-years intervals from the second generation of the Earth System Model (CanESM2) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for three future time slices;near-term (2010-2039), mid-century (2040-2069) and end-century (2071-2099) were generated. The observed data of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation are a good simulation with the modeled data during the calibration and validation periods using the correlation coefficient (R<sup>2</sup>), the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The projected annual minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to increase by 0.091°C, 0.517°C, and 0.73°C and 0.072°C, 0.245°C, and 0.358°C in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under the intermediate scenario, respectively. Under RCP8.5, the annual minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to increase by 0.192°C, 0.409°C, and 0.708°C, 0.402°C, 4.352°C, and 8.750°C in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Besides, the precipitation is expected to increase under intermediate and high emission scenarios by 1.314%, 7.643%, and 12.239%, and 1.269%, 10.316% and 26.298% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Temperature and precipitation are projected to increase in total amounts under all-time slices and emissions pathways. In both emission scenarios, the greatest changes in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation are predicted by the end of the century. This implies climate smart actions in development policies and activities need to consider locally downscale expected climatic changes.
Climate change is one environmental threat that poses great challenges to the future development prospects of Ethiopia. The study used the statistically downscaled daily data in 30-years intervals from the second generation of the Earth System Model (CanESM2) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for three future time slices;near-term (2010-2039), mid-century (2040-2069) and end-century (2071-2099) were generated. The observed data of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation are a good simulation with the modeled data during the calibration and validation periods using the correlation coefficient (R<sup>2</sup>), the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The projected annual minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to increase by 0.091°C, 0.517°C, and 0.73°C and 0.072°C, 0.245°C, and 0.358°C in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under the intermediate scenario, respectively. Under RCP8.5, the annual minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to increase by 0.192°C, 0.409°C, and 0.708°C, 0.402°C, 4.352°C, and 8.750°C in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Besides, the precipitation is expected to increase under intermediate and high emission scenarios by 1.314%, 7.643%, and 12.239%, and 1.269%, 10.316% and 26.298% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Temperature and precipitation are projected to increase in total amounts under all-time slices and emissions pathways. In both emission scenarios, the greatest changes in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation are predicted by the end of the century. This implies climate smart actions in development policies and activities need to consider locally downscale expected climatic changes.
作者
Tesemash Abebe
Leta Bekele
Misrak Tamire Hessebo
Tesemash Abebe;Leta Bekele;Misrak Tamire Hessebo(Department of Climate Science, Ethiopian Environment and Forest Research Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia;Department of Meteorological Data and Climatology, Ethiopia Meteorology Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia;Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Dilla University, Dilla, Ethiopia)
