摘要
In this study, we investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Northern Ireland from 1<sup>st</sup> March 2020 up to 25<sup>th</sup> December 2020, using sever</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">al copies of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (<i></span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">SEIR</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></i>) compart</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">mental model, and compare it to </span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">a </span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">detailed publicly available dataset. We split the data into 10 time intervals and fit the models on the consecutive intervals to the cumulative number of confirmed positive cases on each interval. Using the fitted parameter estimates, we also provide estimates of the reproduction number.</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> We also discuss the limitations and possible extensions of the employed model.
In this study, we investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Northern Ireland from 1<sup>st</sup> March 2020 up to 25<sup>th</sup> December 2020, using sever</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">al copies of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (<i></span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">SEIR</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></i>) compart</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">mental model, and compare it to </span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">a </span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">detailed publicly available dataset. We split the data into 10 time intervals and fit the models on the consecutive intervals to the cumulative number of confirmed positive cases on each interval. Using the fitted parameter estimates, we also provide estimates of the reproduction number.</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> We also discuss the limitations and possible extensions of the employed model.
作者
Peter A. Hall
Gabor Kiss
Tilman Kuhn
Salissou Moutari
Ellen Patterson
Emily Smith
Peter A. Hall;Gabor Kiss;Tilman Kuhn;Salissou Moutari;Ellen Patterson;Emily Smith(Mathematical Science Research Centre, School of Mathematics & Physics, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom;School of Biological Sciences, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom;Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany)
