摘要
城镇化是我国社会稳定发展必然面临并需要科学引导与管理的重大问题。基于空间变系数自回归模型,通过采用2015年中国31个省份的人口城镇化数据,研究影响我国人口城镇化宏观因素并对相关结果进行可视化分析。结果显示:1) 第三产业产出、外商投资明显促进人口城镇化的发展,城乡收入差距抑制了人口城镇化的发展,人均生产总值和第二产业产出则表现出强烈的空间异质性。2) 西部地区(甘肃、宁夏等)、中部地区(山西、河南等)和东部地区(浙江、辽宁等)第三产业的发展对人口城镇化的促进作用依次减弱。3) 在经济较发达地区经济增长明显推动着人口城镇化的发展,然而在经济特发达地区和经济欠发达地区对人口城镇化的促进作用较小,甚至是负相关关系,基于上述结论,作出相应的分析并提出合理意见。
Urbanization is a major problem thatChinese society stability will inevitably face and needs scientific guidanceand management. Based on the spatial varying-coefficients autoregressive model,we adopt the population urbanization data of 31 provinces of China in 2015 tostudy the macro factors affecting the urbanization of China’s population, andvisualize the related results. The results showed that: 1) Output of thetertiary industry and foreign investment has significantly promoted thedevelopment of population urbanization. The urban-rural income gap hasinhibited the development of population urbanization. Per capita GDP and secondaryindustry output have shown strong spatial heterogeneity. 2) In the westernregion (Gansu, Ningxia, etc.), the central region (Shanxi, Henan, etc.) and theeastern region (Zhejiang, Liaoning, etc.), the promotion of the development ofthe tertiary industry for population urbanization is decreased successively;3)In more economically developed areas, economic growth has obviously promotedthe development of population urbanization. However, it has little or evennegative correlation effect on population urbanization in economicallyespecially developed regions and economically underdeveloped regions. Based onthe above conclusions, we make a corresponding analysis and put forward reasonableopinions.
出处
《统计学与应用》
2019年第1期79-85,共7页
Statistical and Application
