摘要
为反应黄河流域山东半岛城市群公路货运与区域经济的时空协调分布格局和关联特性,对公路货运与区域经济进行OLS回归分析,发现公路货运会间接影响区域经济的发展形式,通过稳健性回归对2018年和2020年山东省各地市的公路货运与区域经济进行相关性检验,显示2020年两系统的相关性明显高于2018年,说明随着时间的变化公路运输的经济联系越来越密切;运用耦合协调模型对2015年~2020年的两系统进行空间适配性分析,发现山东省两系统已由最初的极度失调发展到优质协调状态,并保持稳定;从市域层面对2018年与2020年山东半岛城市群两系统耦合协调度分析研究,发现2020年山东省各地市耦合协调度等级差异性更大,并且若经济有序度增加,当公路货运有序度增加时,城市耦合协调度上升,当公路货运有序度降低时,城市耦合协调度保持不变;若经济有序度降低时,城市耦合协调度下降。
In order to reflect the spatiotemporal coordinated distribution pattern and correlation characte-ristics of road freight and regional economy in the urban agglomeration of Shandong Peninsula in the Yellow River Basin, OLS regression analysis was carried out on road freight and regional economy, and it was found that road freight would indirectly affect the development form of re-gional economy, and the correlation test between road freight and regional economy in various cities in Shandong Province in 2018 and 2020 was tested through robustness regression, showing that the correlation between the two systems in 2020 was significantly higher than that in 2018. Illustrate the economic links of road transport becoming closer and closer over time;Using the coupled coordination model to analyze the spatial adaptability of the two systems in 2015~2020, it is found that the two systems in Shandong Province have developed from the initial extreme imbalance to the state of high-quality coordination and remain stable. From the municipal level, the analysis and research on the coupling coordination degree of the two systems of the urban agglomeration of Shandong Peninsula in 2018 and 2020 shows that the coupling coordination degree level of various cities in Shandong Province in 2020 is more different, and if the economic orderly degree increases, when the orderly degree of road freight increases, the urban coupling coordination degree increases, and when the orderly degree of road freight decreases, the urban coupling coordination degree remains unchanged. If the economic order decreases, the urban coupling coordination degree decreases.
出处
《交通技术》
2023年第3期175-187,共13页
Open Journal of Transportation Technologies
