摘要
社会发展质量是指各国家或地区,针对其自身特点和发展阶段,能够多大程度地平衡其社会基本矛盾的能力。缅甸作为“一带一路”沿线重要的合作国家,其各省域发展质量对于“中缅经济走廊”基础设施建设及经贸投资具有重要的参考价值。本研究基于社会发展质量的概念内涵,从人口因素、基础设施、经济发展、自然地理、社会稳定等五个准则出发,选取24个指标构建评价体系,利用基于理想点的主客观赋权法和TOPSIS模型,针对缅甸国内各省邦在2010~2017年间的社会发展质量贡献率进行评价分析。结果表明:1) 在评价准则层面,社会稳定和经济发展现状对于缅甸各省邦社会发展质量具有较高影响,其权重分别为0.3159和0.2625;指标层面政治冲突数量、夜间灯光指数、外企投资和就业人数等较为重要,其权重分别为0.0867、0.1059、0.0876和0.1617;2) 缅甸各省邦社会发展质量贡献率分为3个等级,第1等级为仰光省社会发展质量较高,第2等级为曼德勒省社会发展质量中等,第3等级为除仰光省和曼德勒省以外的其他省邦,社会发展质量贡献率较低;其中,仰光省的自然禀赋是限制其质量进一步提升的主要因素;曼德勒省的社会发展质量主要受限于人口因素;克钦邦、掸邦和若开邦在各个准则层的差异和波动较大,但整体贡献率都处于较低水平。
The quality of social development refers to the extent to which each country or region, given its own characteristics and stage of development, is able to balance its basic social contradictions. As an important cooperative country along the “Belt and Road”, the development quality of Myanmar’s provinces has an important reference value for infrastructure construction and economic and trade investment in the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. Based on the conceptual connotation of social development quality, this study selects 24 indicators to construct an evaluation system based on 5 criteria, including population factors, infrastructure, economic development, physical geography, and social stability, and evaluates and analyzes the contribution rate of social development quality in various provinces and states in Myanmar from 2010 to 2017 by using the subjective and objective empowerment method and TOPSIS model based on ideal points. The results show that: 1) In the evaluation criterion level, social stability and economic development status have a high impact on the social development quality of various provinces and states in Myanmar, and their weights are 0.3159 and 0.2625 respectively;the number of political conflicts at the indicator level, night light index, foreign investment and the number of employees is more important, and their weights are 0.0867, 0.1059, 0.0876, and 0.1617 respectively;2) The contribution rate of the social development quality of Myanmar’s provinces and states is divided into 3 levels, the first level is that the social development quality of Yangon Province is higher, the second is the level of social development in Mandalay Province is medium, and the third level is in other provinces and states except for Yangon and Mandalay which the quality of social development is low. Among them, the natural endowment of Yangon Province is the main factor limiting its quality improvement;the quality of social development in Mandalay Province is mainly limited by demographic factors;Kachi
出处
《地理科学研究》
2023年第2期229-240,共12页
Geographical Science Research
