摘要
为了解果洛地区汛期强降水的变化情况,本研究利用1976~2018年果洛6站和2010~2018年14个区域站的日降水序列,用百分位法定义果洛各站的强降水阈值,用线性倾向估计法和小波分析法对洛地区的强降水量、强降水日数和强度进行变化趋势分析和周期分析,结果表明:果洛地区强降水的降水量和日数以−0.88 mm/10a和−0.03 d/10a的速率呈减少的趋势,强度以0.17 mm/(d•10a)呈增强趋势;自1998年以来果洛地区强降水的降水量、日数和强度以14.96 mm/10a、0.63 d/10和0.68 mm/(d•10a)的速率呈增加趋势。近10年强降水量和日数的中心在玛沁大武乡铜矿,强度中心在久治索乎日麻乡;近5年强降水的中心在久治索乎日麻乡,日数中心在玛沁当洛乡当项,强度中心在久治索乎日麻乡。通过小波分析发现,强降水量9年的振荡周期、强降水日数10年的振荡周期和强降水强度6年和12年的振荡周期较为明显。强降水量由西北向东南方呈增加的分布格局,其中玛多、玛多三叉路口和玛沁雪山乡减少明显;强降水强度从西北向东南方呈增多加强的分布格局,久治索乎日麻乡、达日满掌乡和班玛赛莱唐镇班脑河村强降水强度增强明显;强降水日数从玛沁大武乡铜矿向西北和东南方呈减少的分布格局。
In order to understand the change of heavy precipitation in flood season in Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, the daily precipitation series of 6 stations in Guoluo from 1976 to 2018 and 14 regional stations from 2010 to 2018 were used in this study. The threshold of heavy precipitation at each station in Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture was defined by percentile method. By using the linear trend estimation method, Mann-Kendall method and wavelet analysis method, the trend analysis, mutation test and periodic analysis of the heavy precipitation, the number of days and intensity of the heavy precipitation in the Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture area are carried out. The results showed that the precipitation amount and the number of days of heavy precipitation in the Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture area decreased at the rate of −0.88 mm/10a and −0.03 d/10a, and the intensity increased at the rate of 0.17 mm/(d•10a). Since 1998, the precipitation, the number of days and the intensity of the heavy precipitation in Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture area have been increased at the rates of 14.96 mm/10a, 0.63 d/10a and 0.68 mm/(d•10a). The center of the heavy rainfall and the number of days in the past 10 years was at Maqên County Dawu Mine, and the center of the heavy rainfall in the past 5 years was at Jiuzhi Suohuima Township, and the center of the number of days in the past 5 years was at Jiuzhi Suohuima Township, and the center of the heavy rainfall in the past 5 years was at Maqên County Dangluo township, the center of strength was in Jiuzhi Suohuima township. Wavelet analysis reveals that: The 9-year oscillation period of heavy precipitation, the 10-year Oscillation period of heavy precipitation days and the 6-year and 12-year Oscillation period of heavy precipitation intensity are obvious. The distribution pattern of heavy precipitation increased from northwest to southeast, among which the decrease of Madoi County, Madoi County, the intersection and Maqin Xueshan was obvious, an
出处
《气候变化研究快报》
2020年第5期576-587,共12页
Climate Change Research Letters
关键词
气候变暖
果洛地区
汛期
强降水
百分位法
Climate Warming
Goluo Region
Flood Season
Heavy Precipitation
Percentile Method
