摘要
本文基于中非的经验数据,以孔子学院作为我国文化“走出去”的代理变量,探究中华文化能否带来出口贸易的增长。通过搜集2006~2017年我国在非洲41个国家设立的孔子学院数量和对其出口贸易总额的时间序列数据,建立孔子学院总数与出口贸易总额的VAR模型。运用协整检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等方法分析了孔子学院与出口贸易额的内在联系、互动机制和动态关系。分析结果表明:孔子学院总数是出口总额的格兰杰原因,但出口总额不是孔子学院总数的格兰杰原因;孔子学院总数与出口总额在短期内处于波动状态,但存在着长期的均衡关系,短期内孔子学院总数的增加会使出口总额增加,但长期来看,其效用呈边际递减,一定时期后趋近于零。
Based on the empirical data of China and Africa, this paper takes Confucius institutes as the proxy variable of China’s cultural “going out” to explore whether Chinese culture can bring about the growth of export trade. By collecting the time series data of the number of Confucius institutes established in 41 African countries and the total export trade between 2006 and 2017, the VAR model of the total number of Confucius institutes and the total export trade was established. Using the methods of co-integration test, impulse response function and variance decomposition, this paper analyzes the internal connection, interaction mechanism and dynamic relationship between Confucius institute and export trade volume. The results show that the total number of Confucius institutes is the Granger cause of the total number of exports, but the total number of exports is not the Granger cause of the total number of Confucius institutes. The total number of Confucius institutes fluctuates with the total amount of exports in a short period of time, but there is a long-term equilibrium relationship. The increase of the total number of Confucius institutes will increase the total amount of exports in a short period of time. However, in the long run, the utility of the total number of Confucius institutes will show a marginal decline, which will be close to zero after a certain period of time.
出处
《社会科学前沿》
2020年第6期911-919,共9页
Advances in Social Sciences
关键词
中非
孔子学院
出口贸易
VAR模型
Central Africa
Confucius Institute
Export Trade
The VAR Model
