摘要
分析了华北地震区历史和近代地震活动特征 ,得到该区 180 0年以来 5 5级以上地震活动 ,在删除余震后接近泊松过程 ,并在此基础上估计了该区未来地震活动趋势 ;结果表明 ,2 0 0 5年前该区发生 6级和 7级地震的概率分别为 0 92和 0 6 9;2 0 10年前该区发生 6级和 7级地震的概率分别为 0 99和 0 75。
The character of history and recent earthquake activity has been analyzed in North China. The result shows that the M≥5.5 earthquake activity since 1800 approaches to Poisson distribution if aftershock were ignored. Based on this result, the future seismic activity trend has been predicated. It indicated that the probability will be 0.92( M≥6) and 0.69(M≥7) before 2005 years, and the probability will be 0.99( M≥6) and 0.75(M≥7) before 2010 years.
出处
《地震地磁观测与研究》
2004年第3期8-13,共6页
Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research
关键词
地震活动特征
未来趋势预测
华北地震区
earthquake activity character, the future trend predication, North China seism region
