摘要
本文探讨了开发国内工业原材料期货价格指数的意义,并提出了符合中国实际情况的编制方法和修正方法,研制出我国上海期货交易所的工业原材料期货价格指数。实证结果表明:在样本区间内其先行时间达到3个月,能反映出我国生产资料价格的未来价格走势,这为我国宏观价格政策的制定具有重要的意义。
Commodities futures index,first as an economic indicator,second as a financial derivative tool,it is helpful for government department,investor and investigator to hold and grasp commodity price.Therefore,we bring forward the index compilation method according with the real condition of China and figure out the raw material industrial index.The conclusings have drawn,the Chinas raw material industrial index circulates normally,the Granger causality is existing from China's raw material industrial index to PPI,the former leads the latter by three months.Since the China's raw material industrial index reflects the price fluctuations of raw material industrial products,it could be a indicator to monitor the industrial boom of our country.Ultimately,the author suggests that the government administration should put the raw material industrial index into the Shanghai Futures Exchange as a financial derivative investable tool with a feasible plan.
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
2004年第2期27-31,共5页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
关键词
期货价格指数
生产资料价格
Futures price index
production material price
