摘要
为了确定对紫外线预报的有效方法,在现有紫外线观测数据基础上,使用逐步回归方法和灰色系统理论分别建立预测模型,并对两种模型的结果进行拟合分析和比较.结果表明,灰色预测方法同样具有较高的准确度,比较简单,计算量少,而逐步回归方法效果稳定,两种预报方法在对紫外线预报中都有很高的价值.
Using the ultraviolet observation data, we get the time law by the ultraviolet changes. A series of equations by the step regressive analysis technique are set up to study the methods of forecast. This article also discusses the advantages of the grey predictive method based on the grey system. The grey predictive method is suited for prediction of lacked samples, a model based on GM (1,1) grey system is built to forecast UV index. The forecast verification shows that both methods produce high predictive precision. The difference between them is that the first one has high stability and the other is simpler in calculating.
出处
《哈尔滨工业大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第5期586-588,616,共4页
Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology
基金
哈尔滨市气象局科研基金资助项目.
