摘要
在有关汇率长期走势的各种理论分析框架下,人民币确有升值的动力,该动力推动了升值预期的形成。在这种情况下,如果继续沿用实际上钉住美元的汇率制度,就可能因外汇储备的超常增长而对国内需求形成压力,削弱货币政策的自主性及企业未来的国际竞争力。为此,需要实行目标区汇率制度,适度扩大浮动范围,并配合以外汇供求调节,从而化解升值压力,并将升值控制在一定幅度内。
Based on theories about the long-term trend of exchange rate, the momentum of RMB appreciation can be found in faith. It impels the anticipation of appreciation coming into being. In this Situation, excessive increasing of foreign exchange reserve would make extrusion to domestic demand and weaken the independence of monetary policy and the enterprise's international competitive capacity, if continue to use the de facto peg to US dollar regime. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out target zones exchange rate regime to extend floating range, concerting with supply and demand adjustment. In this way, the pressure of appreciation can be weakened and be controlled within some extent and the negative impact will not be serious.
出处
《华南金融研究》
2004年第1期20-25,共6页
South China Financial Research
