摘要
目的 利用气象参数建立模型来预测长江下游血吸虫病流行情况。方法 建立基础地理信息系统 ,收集江苏、安徽和江西省以及周边地区各气象站数据 ,采用 Malone氏血吸虫传播指数公式 ,计算各地血吸虫传播指数。采用 Arc View3.2软件的空间分析方法 ,根据各观察站点的传播指数的高低 ,以不同颜色在不同空间、时间上表示适合血吸虫生长发育传播强弱的区域 ,并合成传播月份血吸虫传播生长期复合图。取 1995年 AVHRR卫星遥感片资料 ,按 4个季节制成复合图 ,将各季节的传播指数和 NDVI在 Arc View3.2软件进行叠加分析。将选取的观察点实际血吸虫病流行情况按流行程度和流行与否 ,与预测结果进行等级相关性检验 ,以判别相关吻合程度。结果 血吸虫传播指数的大小与流行程度密切相关。结论 GIS技术可以作为血吸虫病分布。
Objective Using climate parameters to build up a model for prediction of the endemic situation of schistosomiasis in the lower reach of the Yangtze River, China.Methods The base geographic information system was set up on schistosomiasis. The FAO-CLIM database from municipal climate stations in Jiangsu, Anhui and Jiangxi provinces were collected. Malone′s formula was employed to calculate the index of schistosomiasis transmission of study sites. The map calculation of schistosomiasis transmission in transmission seasons was combined in terms of the index of schistosomiasis transmission. It was composed of different colors to show the intensity of transmission in different space and time. Meanwhile the map calculation for four seasons was made and combined with the data derived from AVHRR satellite images. The spatial and GIS layer analysis between the index of season transmission and NDVI were preformed with the software of ArcView 3 2a and ERDAS. Whether the study sites were endemic or not were surveyed. Rank correlation analysis was employed to test coefficient of correlation between the predicted results and real endemic situation. Results There was close correlation between the index of schistosomiasis transmission and real endemic intensity in the study sites. Conclusion GIS and remote sensing technique can predict the endemic regions and transmission intensity of schistosomiasis.
出处
《中国血吸虫病防治杂志》
CAS
CSCD
2004年第2期86-89,F002,共5页
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control
