摘要
突变性和周期性是水文时间序列的两个重要特征。黄河流域面积广阔,各区域水文水资源系统演变规律各不相同,它们的突变和周期变化及其形成的物理机制迥异,因此系统分析各区域水资源突变性和周期性特征及其影响机制具有重要意义。把黄河流域划分为15个区域,计算出各区域1951-1998年的年天然径流量系列。利用Mann—Kendall非参数检验方法检测黄河流域各区域年天然径流量的突变年份,结果表明各区域的突变年份不完全一致,主要在1953-1955年、1979-1983年、1991-1993年等发生了突变,这些突变与北半球气候突变具有一致性,且由于下垫面改变、人类活动等影响而复杂化。利用Morlet小波分析各区域年天然径流量的变化周期,发现主要存在3～4 a、7～9a、11a的周期,形成这些周期的物理因子有太阳黑子、海-气相互作和下下垫面因素等。通过分析黄河流域主要产流区不同时段小波系数变化,发现20世纪80年代之后年径流量主要以短周期变化。
Abrupt and periodic changes are two important characters of the hydrological time series. The Yellow River, the second largest river in China with a basin of 752 443 km2 , includes all kinds of climatic and hydrolog-ical regions, and their abrupt and periodic changes are different and the physical mechanisms for them are not same. So it is necessary to research the abrupt and periodic changes of the runoff series for rational water exploitation in the Yellow River subregions. In this paper the Yellow River Basin is divided into 15 subregions and their natural annual runoff time series are calculated from 1951 to 1998. The abrupt changes in these series are analyzed with the method of Mann-Kendall and the results show that some main abrupt changes happened during 1953 - 1955,1979 - 1983 and 1991 - 1993. These abrupt changes are consistent with the climatic changes in the North Hemisphere and become more complex for the regional environment and human activities. We apply Morlet Wavelet to the periods of annual runoff series of subregions and find they varied with primary periods of 3~4,7~9 and 11 years. Some physical reasons for the periods are discussed such as the mutual action of sea and atmosphere, the sunspot, human activities and so on. Moreover, the short periods, 3-year for example, become prominent after 1980s in four important water resources subregions.
出处
《山地学报》
CSCD
2004年第2期140-146,共7页
Mountain Research
基金
国家重点基础研究规划项目(G1999043605)资助~~
关键词
天然径流量
突变
周期
黄河流域
natural runoff
abrupt change
period
the Yellow River Basin
