摘要
本研究从分析线性盈余-回报模型的假定开始,指出了线性模型的固有缺陷。因此,我们提出了盈余与股票回报之间的非线性关系,相对于线性模型而言,非线性模型能够更好地解释未预期盈余与未预期回报间的关系。根据盈余-回报之间关系的特点,我们使用了反正切函数作为研究非线性盈余-回报关系的基础。实证检验结果表明:非线性模型显著地比线性模型具有更好的拟合优度;通过从盈余中剔除暂时性项目,我们观察到非线性模型的拟合优度显著降低,这说明持续性较差的暂时性项目可能是产生非线性盈余-回报关系的原因之一。
This study begins with the analysis of the assumptions of the Linear Earnings-Returns Model, and points out the inherent disadvantages of the linear model. So we assume that the relation of unexpected earnings and unexpected stock returns is nonlinear. Nonlinear Earnings-Returns Model can provide significantly higher explanatory power than linear model. According to the natures of unexpected earnings and unexpected stock returns, we employ inverse tangent (arctan function) as the basic model of our empirical study. The related tests show that nonlinear model has more significant goodness-of-fit than linear model. After excluding the transient items from earnings, the goodness-of-fit of nonlinear model drops a lot. This proves that the transient items may be one of the reasons that cause the nonlinear relation of Earnings-Returns.
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第2期37-43,共7页
China Soft Science
