摘要
利用中尺度暴雨模式MRM 1对 2 0 0 1年 6、7月华南的暴雨进行数值预报试验 ,初始场采用T10 6谱模式的预报场作初估场 ,海表温度采用 1982～ 2 0 0 1年的候平均海温 ,试验结果表明 :模式对两个月的 1、10、2 5、5 0、10 0mm降水平均TS值分别达到 0 .6 2 9、0 .35 8、0 .2 38、0 .16 0、0 .0 6 3,两个月中的主要降水过程预报效果较好 ,特别是 7月几次台风暴雨过程。
Numerical experimentation is done by using MRM1 (Mesoscale Rainstorm Model)for heavy rain over South China on June and July,2001.Initial field is analyzed by using forecast field of T106 as first guess field,the pentad average sea surface temperature (SST) from 1982 to 2001 is used as model SST.The results of experimentation show that the average threat score (TS) of 1,10,25,50,100 mm of precipitation test within these two months is 0.629,0.358,0.238,0.160,0.063,and they are larger than most of the models at home and abroadThe main precipitation process is preferably forecasted on two months,and many typhoon rainstorm processes on July are especially well forecasted.
出处
《气象科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第1期62-71,共10页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
基金
空军"中尺度暴雨 η模式的研制及业务化试验"课题资助项目 (编号 :990 99)
关键词
中尺度暴雨模式
华南暴雨
数值试验
Mesoscale rainstorm model South China rainstorm Numerical experimentation
