摘要
基于能值分析理论,选取环境负荷率、能值废弃率指标来度量环境压力,选取黑龙江省1990—2011年度数据为样本,将环境压力分别与城市化率、人均GDP进行VECM动态关系研究。研究结果表明:(1)城市化、经济增长都与环境压力存在长期均衡关系,且具有长期正效应。(2)城市化与环境压力之间的短期影响显著,贡献度较大处在70%左右,表明环境压力的增加是城市化推进的积累结果。鉴于环境压力长期均衡对短期偏离的调整力度大,因此在短期内降低环境压力的难度较大。(3)经济增长与环境压力之间的短期影响不显著,但从长期看,经济增长对环境压力具有持续稳定的正效应,且贡献率处于30%~40%之间,表明经济增长对环境压力具有较强的影响关系。
Based on energy analysis theory,use environmental load rate and energy waste rate index to measure the environment pressure. In order to explore the dynamic relations between the environment pressure variables,urbanization rate and economic growth,this paper selects the data from 1990 to 2011 in Heilongjiang Province,with the use of vector error correction model( VECM). The results indicate following conclusions.( 1) The urbanization and economic growth have long-term equilibrium relationship with and long-term positive effects on the environment pressure.( 2) The urbanization has significant short-term effects and certain hysteresis on the environment pressure and the relative contribution goes up to almost 70%,indicating that the increase of environmental pressure is the accumulated result of urbanization.( 3) Short-term effects between economic growth and environmental pressure are not significant but in the long run,economic growth has a steady positive effect on the environment pressure. And the contribution rate is between 30% and 40%,showing that economic growth pressure has strong influence on the environment.
出处
《中南财经政法大学研究生学报》
2014年第1期38-44,共7页
Journal of the Postgraduate of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
关键词
环境压力
城市化
经济增长
动态关系
Environmental Stress
Urbanization
Economic Growth
Dynamic Relationship
