摘要
建立了一个湖北省13个部门静态CGE模型,以及一个包含资源、环境与贸易的社会核算矩阵(SAM),采用5套模拟方案,对关税税率冲击下的湖北省经济、贸易与环境进行政策模拟。模型模拟分析表明,当提高关税税率在20%之内是有利于经济增长、居民福利改善;但过高的关税最终会使经济增长和居民福利水平下降;其对进出口都会产生负面影响,但短期有利于环境水平的提高。同时,通过引入能源税对比发现,征收能源税除了短期内对经济增长不利外,其福利效应、贸易效应、环境效应均好于征收关税。所以在经济复苏时期,贸易保护并不是一种最优选择。
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the environmental and trade effects of tariff changes, we have established 13 agents static CGE model and build the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) in Hubei that includes resources, environment and trade, with 5 scenarios of simulation programs solution impact on the economy trade and environment from the tariff rates changes. Model simulation shows that it is beneficial to economic growth and population welfare when the tariff rate increases within 20%, but high tariffs will ultimately reduce the level of economic growth and welfare of the residents, and its negative impact on the import and export of all but short-term beneficial environmental levels. So in times of economic recovery, trade protection is not an optimal choice.
出处
《中南财经政法大学研究生学报》
2010年第4期16-22,共7页
Journal of the Postgraduate of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
基金
教育部人文社会科学基金项目:贸易与环境问题的南北一体化关系研究(项目编号:06JAGJW008)
关键词
关税
可计算一般均衡模型
社会核算矩阵
政策模拟
Tariffs
Computable General Equilibrium Model
Social Accounting Matrix
Policy Simulation
