摘要
为综合评估农业旱灾风险,依据危险性、灾损敏感性、暴露性、抗旱能力4个子系统相互作用关系选取指标,用遗传模糊层次分析法确定权重,用集对分析与灰色关联对农业旱灾风险各子系统进行评价,用风险矩阵合成各子系统的评价结果,构建了基于风险矩阵的区域农业旱灾风险链式传递评估方法。该评估方法用于安徽省淮河流域的结果表明:亳州农业旱灾风险为重险,淮北、宿州、阜阳、蚌埠、滁州淮河流域为中险,合肥淮河流域为轻险,淮南、六安淮河流域为微险,结果与实际情况相符。上述改进的集对分析与风险矩阵耦合的旱灾风险链式传递评估方法科学合理,为区域农业旱灾风险评估提供了新途径,在实际自然灾害风险评估中具有推广应用价值。
In order to make a comprehensive assessment of the risk of agricultural drought,model considered indices of four assessment subsystems and their interaction relations to analysis regional risk level,namely,hazard subsystem,the exposure subsystem,vulnerability subsystem and drought resistance subsystem.And the weights were determined by the genetic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.The each subsystem of agricultural drought was evaluated by set pair analysis and grey correlation.And the evaluation result of the four subsystems was integrated by risk matrix.Finally,the chain transfer assessment model of regional agricultural drought risk based on set pair analysis and risk matrix(CTA-SPARM)was established.The results of applying CTA-SPARM to Huaihe River Basin in Anhui Province of China show that Bozhou was at high risk,Huaibei,Suzhou,Bengbu,Fuyang and Huaihe River Basin in Chuzhou were at medium risk,the Huaihe River Basin in Hefei was at weak risk,Huainan and Huaihe River Basin in Lu’an were at micro risk.The above result was consistent with the actual situation,chain compound assessment model based on the improved set pair analysis and risk matrix was scientific and reasonable,which can provide a new idea for regional agricultural drought risk assessment,and have application value in risk assessment of the actual natural disasters.
作者
董涛
金菊良
王振龙
崔毅
宁少尉
陈梦璐
DONG Tao;JIN Juliang;WANG Zhenlong;CUI Yi;NING Shaowei;CHEN Menglu(Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province and Huaihe River Commission,Ministry of Water Resources,Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy and Water Resources of Anhui Province,Hefei233088,China;School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei230009,China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei230009,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin300072,China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第3期227-234,共8页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502405)
国家自然科学基金项目(51579059,51709071)
山东省重点研发计划项目(2017GSF20101)
关键词
农业旱灾
风险评估
集对分析
风险矩阵
灰色关联
链式传递
安徽省淮河流域
agricultural drought disaster
risk assessment
set pair analysis
risk matrix
gray correlation
chain transfer
Huaihe River Basin of Anhui Province
