摘要
目的:探索单相抑郁症复发率的动态变化规律。方法:Lavori等(1994年)对359例单相抑郁症索引发作恢复后随访15年,结果发现,抑郁症复发的累积概率0年为0%,0.5年为13%,在1～15年期间每年随访1次,各年的复发积累概率分别为28%,43%,52%,59%,62%,66%,68%,71%,74%,75%,80%,81%,82%,82%和87%。对这一概率的纵向变化做曲线配合。结果:单相抑郁症的复发积累概率呈对数曲线规律y=20.50+24.01×ln(x+0.4),R2=0.9945。随着随访时间的延长,其复发累积概率明显增加,其形态类似于y=a+b×lnx的对数曲线。故拟用对数曲线进行配合,结果发现:该曲线永远不可能通过坐标圆点,即不可能通过随访起始点0年时复发累积概率为0这一点,故将lnx改为ln(x+K),K是一常数,分别以0.38,0.40,0.41,0.43这些常数代入K,结果发现,K=0.4时配合曲线的相关指数(R2)最高(0.9945),其对数方程y=20.50+24.01×ln(x+0.4)。结论:单相抑郁症的复发累积概率能用对数方程描述,根据这一方程,可在15年内推算一个时点到另一时点的区间复发概率。
AIM:To explore the dynamic changing regularity of recurrent rate of unipolar dep ression. METHODS:Lavori,et al( 1994) indicated that it was followed for 15 years in 359 patients with unipolar depression with index onset remission. The cumulative probability of recurrent depression at 0 year was 0% and 13% at 0.5 year,th en it was followed up yearly from 1 to 15 years.The cumulative probability of re current depression 28% ,43% , 52% , 59% , 62% , 66% , 68% , 71% , 74% , 75% , 80% , 81% , 82% , 82% and 87% respectively. Curved fi t was made to the longitudinal change of the probability. RESULTS:There was a logarithmic curve regularity between cumulative recurrent possibility and time in patients with unipolar depression[y=20.50+ 24.01× ln( x+ 0.4),R2=0.9945].Its recurrent cumulative probability increased obviously alo ng with the elongation of follow- up,and its form was similar to the logarithmi c curve of y=a+ b× lnx,so logarithmic curve was used.The result showed that th e curve would never pass the dot,that was to say,it wouldn't pass the point that stood for the 0- year follow- up and recurrent cumulative probability was 0% .So lnx was changed into ln(x+ K)(K is a constant),then K was substitued by 0. 38, 0.40, 0.41, 0.43 respectively,it was found that the maximam correlative index(R2) was 0.9945,its logarithmic equation was y=20.50+ 24.01× ln(x+ 0.4). CONCLUSION:Recurrent cumulative probability can be analyzed with logarithmic equation,and the recurrent rate during an interval in 15 years can be calculated according to the equation.
出处
《中国临床康复》
CSCD
2004年第3期408-409,共2页
Chinese Journal of Clinical Rehabilitation
基金
南京市跨世纪学术带头人后备人员专项基金资助项目(20028055)~~
