摘要
依据慈溪市1971—2000年棉铃虫发生程度的历史资料,运用马尔可夫链分析法模拟预测棉田主害代第4代棉铃虫的发生趋势。结果表明,此法预报准确率达84%,并可对棉铃虫的发生趋势进行超长期预测。
Based on the data of the investigation for occurrence degree of cotton bollworm during 1971-2000 in Cixi city, Markov chains transition matrix. was used to forecast occurrence degree of cotton bollworm, especially its forth generation. Results showed that the rate of coincidence was 84%, while testing this occurrence degree of cotton bollworm in long term forecast.
出处
《浙江农业学报》
CSCD
2003年第6期357-360,共4页
Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis
关键词
棉铃虫
发生趋势
预测
马尔可夫链分析法
Heliothis armigera H.
occurrence degree
forecast
Markov chains transition matrix
