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“一带一路”贸易网络对中国贸易效率的影响——兼论与TPP、TTIP、RCEP的比较 被引量:12

The Impacts of the “Belt and Road” Trade Network on the Trade Efficiency of China: A Reconsideration of the Comparison with TPP,TTIP and RCEP
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摘要 文章运用复杂网络分析法结合随机前沿模型,研究"一带一路"贸易网络的拓扑特征及其对中国进出口贸易效率的影响。在引入TPP、TTIP和RCEP等巨型自贸区贸易网络进行对比的同时,充分考虑了贸易无效率项的异质性。结果表明:区域贸易网络逐渐形成明显的"马太效应",分别以德国、法国和美国为核心的贸易网络社区规模持续扩大,以中国为轴心的贸易网络社区凝聚力不足、离心力增大,面临被边缘化的风险;任务贸易与价值链条交织产生的网络张力,有助于提升我国出口效率、缓解不确定性冲击;对于高中心性发达国家能源资源、高技术产品进口的过度依赖不利于提升进口效率,且长期被动进口的劣势地位也将加剧进口效率的波动。 Using complex network analysis method combined with stochastic frontier model, this article dives into the topological characteristics of the 'Belt and Road' trade network and its impacts on the efficiency of China’ s import and export trade. Meanwhile, the trade networks such as TPP, TTIP and RCEP are introduced jointly for comparison. Further, the heterogeneity of trade inefficiency items is fully considered. The research results show that the trade network gradually forms an obvious 'Matthew effect',with the scale of the trade network communities with the core of Germany, France and the United States, continuing to expand, and showing strong unipolar characteristics and exclusiveness. While,the trade network community with China as the center appears to be of insufficient cohesive force and decreasing centrifugal force, facing the risk of being marginalized. The network tension generated by the intertwined task trade and value chain helps to improve China’ s export efficiency and alleviate various uncertainties. By contrast,excessive reliance on energy resource and high-tech product import from high-centralize developed counties is not conducive to China’ s import efficiency, and such passive import disadvantage will also increase the fluctuation of import efficiency.
作者 王彦芳 陈淑梅 高佳汇 Wang Yan-fang;Chen Shu-mei;Gao Jia-hui
出处 《亚太经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2019年第1期49-55,154,共8页 Asia-Pacific Economic Review
基金 国家社科基金重点项目"‘一带一路’战略背景下我国应对TPP TTIP与RCEP的策略研究"(16AJL010)的阶段性成果 江苏省研究生科研创新计划"价值链分工与区域经济协调发展:基于GVC与NVC动态耦合"(KYCX18_0211)资助
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