摘要
对位于地震预测工作所圈定的地震危险区附近的地震的统计检验问题 ,一直是地震预测研究中一个颇有争议的问题。本文以中国地震局全国年度地震趋势会商的情况为例 ,对这一问题进行了探讨。结果表明 ,将所划定的地震危险区适度扩大 ,即将现有的地震危险区范围向外扩大约 0 5° ,可以显著地提高预测地震的“命中率”。但从统计检验的角度说 ,这样做并不能提高实际地震预测的能力 ,亦即并不能使R值有显著的提高。
Whether earthquakes at the edge of the warning area can be considered as successfully predicted is one of the controversial problems in earthquake prediction study. Using the results of annual prediction in China based on the National Annual Consultation Meeting on the Likelihood of Future Earthquakes, this paper discussed this controversial problem in a statistical perspective. It is shown that expansion of the warning area may apparently enhance the “successful ratio” of earthquake prediction. In testing the statistical significance, however, such an expansion cannot lead to the apparent enhancement of the prediction capability, that is, the statistical R value cannot be enhanced significantly.
出处
《中国地震》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第4期351-357,共7页
Earthquake Research in China
关键词
统计检验
地震预测
年度地震趋势会商
Statistical test Earthquake prediction Annual earthquake prediction in China
