摘要
2018年以来,资管新规和财政部加强对地方政府债务的管理,两者叠加使得社融增速急剧下降。中国经济目前处于下行通道中,要拉动下一步经济增长,基建投资是其中最重要的一个方面。但是,目前财政预算中对基建的资金支持无法满足现实中的合理需求。所以,财政政策需要更积极。许多学者争论2019年赤字率是否要超过3%,对于这个问题,要与地方债务和历史债务联系起来。根据估算,在对历史债务认账的前提下,政府债务率会提高到65%,对公益和准公益类的新增建设项目买账,需要未来十年财政赤字率额外增加3~6个百分点。政府需要避免债务率过高,但债务率也不是越低越好。总之,中国应该将地方政府债务划清界限,为地方政府合理举债关上后门打开前门,将财政债务和赤字显性化、规范化。
Since this year, the Ministry of Finance and the new regulations on capital management have strengthened the management of local government debts. The superposition of the two has led to a sharp decline in the growth rate of social finance. At present, China’s economy is in the downward channel. Capital investment is one of the most important aspects to promote the next economic growth. However, the financial support for capital construction in the current budget can not meet the reasonable needs in reality. Therefore, fiscal policy needs to be more active.Many scholars have debated whether the deficit rate will exceed 3% next year, which should be linked to local and historical debt. According to estimates, on the premise of recognizing historical debt, the government debt rate will increase to 65%. To buy new construction projects of public welfare and quasi-public welfare, it will need an additional 3-6 percentage points increase in the fiscal deficit rate in the next 10 years. Governments need to avoid high debt ratios, but an appropriate debt rate is also needed. In short, China should draw a clear line between local government debt, open the front door for local governments to borrow reasonably, and make fiscal debt and deficit explicit and standardized.
作者
张斌
王沈南
朱鹤
张佳佳
ZHANG Bin(China Finance 40 Forum)
出处
《新金融评论》
2018年第6期13-54,共42页
New Finance Review
关键词
财政政策
基建投资
赤字率
政府债务率
Fiscal Policy
Infrastructure Investment
Deficit Rate
Government Debt Ratio
