摘要
本文认为,商业银行表外融资业务构成中国影子银行业务的主体。外汇占款投放放缓与商业银行表内贷款扩张受限,抑制了金融体系的货币信用供应能力,是影子银行业务加速兴起的重要宏观背景。以社会融资规模数据为基础,测算影子银行业务的规模在7.1万亿—21.9万亿之间,10.8万亿元或许是偏中性的估计。过去几年企业部门积累了比较显著的资产负债表期限错配,给影子银行、商业银行、金融市场,以及实体经济运行带来了很大的风险,值得关注。
We argue in this paper that,off balance sheet financing activities dominated by commercial banks constitute the main body of shadow banking system in China.The slowdown of foreign exchange reserve accumulation and the constraints on the expansion of on balance sheet business of commercial banks,have suppressed the money and credit supply in the financial system,which also fuels the rapid development of shadow banking.Based on the social financing data,we estimate that the scale of shadow banking is between 7.1 to 21.9 trillion yuan,with a neutral estimation of about 10.8 trillion yuan.The significant maturity mismatch problem accumulated in the corporate sector in the past few years,brings great risk to the operation of the shadow banking,commercial banking,financial markets and the real economy,which should draw more attention.
作者
高善文
莫倩
瞿灿
GAO Shanwen;MO Qian;QU Can(Essence Securities)
出处
《新金融评论》
2013年第2期27-40,共14页
New Finance Review
关键词
影子银行
货币信用供应能力受限
规模
期限错配
Shadow Banking
Constraint on the Money and Credit Supply
Maturity Mismatch
